On the eve of the seventh edition of the ANZ Championship, Netball writer Adrian Seconi looks ahead at what we might expect from the season.
Champion to chump
The ANZ Championship has form in this area.
The Swifts won the inaugural tournament in 2008 and the following season slumped to ninth. It certainly was not a one-off either.
The Vixens lost just one game in 2009 but crashed to seventh 12 months later. The Thunderbirds claimed the honours in 2010 but could not break with tradition, slipping to sixth in 2011. Ditto the Firebirds from 2011 to 2012.
Only the Magic has been able to win one year and return to the playoffs the next.
Will the ANZ Championship curse strike again in 2014 or can the Thunderbirds recapture last season's form? The smart money is on a new champion.
One tall Jamaican
OK, there is more than one in the league but none has had the impact Jhaniele Fowler-Reid was able to have on the tournament last season.
The 1.98m tall Steel shooter rewrote the record books with a stunning debut season.
In round two, she broke the record for the most goals scored by an individual in a game when she posted 65 goals against the Tactix.
She repeated the effort against the same opponent in round 12. She also scored 60 goals against the Pulse and averaged more than 50 goals a game.
The question is can she back up that extraordinary season with another.
Teams know only too well what she is capable of and will be desperate to shut her down.
One rather suspects plan A might involve a bit of push and shove. It is not particularly skilful but it can be very effective.
Serious injury
It is only a matter of time before someone is seriously injured.
The game has evolved away from its genteel roots. It is more bull fighting than ballet these days The players are more athletic, they are fitter, faster and more powerful.
The collisions can be ferocious. And once more they are happening with frightening regularity. A penalty just does not cut it.
It has not proved to be a strong enough disincentive. And a lot of the niggly play happens away from the ball and goes unnoticed.
It is time netball took action. It is not grass they are playing on, it is hard wood, and it is hard.
One answer is to introduce a foul system. It does not have to slow the game down the way it does in basketball.
Spoiler alert
Forget the Tactix or the Magic, the three New Zealand teams to watch are the Pulse, the Steel and the Mystics.
The Pulse have depth at the defensive end in Katrina Grant, Ama Agbeze and Te Huinga Reo Selby-Rickit, but shooters Donna Wilkins and the evergreen Irene van Dyk are not getting any younger.
One injury at that end and it is back to Paula Griffin. That ain't good. The Mystics will be much tougher with Laura Langman.
But will one player make that much difference? It did for the Steel last year. The franchise had no problem scoring goals with Fowler-Reid popping more than 50 per game.
It is stopping them which will be the problem.
Its playoffs prospects may hinge on 1.93m defender Erena Mikaere making a big impact in her debut season for the franchise.
Team-by-team analysis
Adrian Seconi rates the prospects of the non-Otago/Southland franchises.
Adelaide Thunderbirds
2013: Champion
Prospects: Will sorely miss Natalie von Bertouch but have retained the core of last year's side. Champion contender for sure.
Key gain: Andre Gilmore (Fever)Key loss: Natalie von Bertouch (retired)
Squad: Emily Beaton, Erin Bell, Carla Borrego, Rebecca Bulley, Renae Hallinan, Laura Packard, Samantha Poolman, Kate Shimmin, Leigh Waddington, Madeleine Proud, Cody Lange, Andrea Gilmore
Coach: Jane Woodlands-Thompson (seventh year)
Queensland Firebirds
2013: Beaten finalist
Prospects: Natalie Medhurst's absence will leave a gaping hole at the attack end. Who will get the ball to Romelda Aiken?
Key gain: Clare McMeniman (returning)
Key loss: Natalie Medhurst (Fever)
Squad: Romelda Aiken, Laura Geitz, Nicola Gray, Demelza McCloud, Jacinta Messer, Kim Ravaillion, Gabrielle Simpson, Ameliaranne Wells, Clare McMeniman, Stephanie Puopolo, Amorette Wild, Verity Simons.
Coach: Roselee Jencke (fifth year)
Melbourne Vixens
2013: Eliminated in preliminary final
Prospects: The retirement of Sharelle McMahon is a big loss but fellow shooter Cath Cox brings a wealth of experience. A great defensive unit.
Key gain: Cath Cox (Fever)
Losses: Sharelle McMahon (retired)
Squad: Madison Browne, Tegan Caldwell, Bianca Chatfield, Erin Hoare, Karyn Howarth, Elissa Macleod, Geva Mentor, Kate Moloney, Amy Steel, Cath Cox, Caitlyn Strachan, Jo Weston.
Coach: Simone McKinnis (second year)
Waikato-Bay of Plenty Magic
2013: Beaten semifinalists
Prospects: Mark the Magic down for a dramatic slide in the ratings. Put it down to no Irene van Dyk or Laura Langman.
Key gain: Jo Harten
Key losses: Irene van Dyk, Laura Langman
Squad: Katherine Coffin, Leana de Bruin, Ellen Halpenny, Casey Kopua, Brooke Leaver, Bessie Manu, Malia Paseka, Jamie-Lee Price, Grace Rasmussen, Samantha Sinclair, Courtney Tairi, Jo Trip.
Coach: Julie Fitzgerald (first year)
Central Pulse
2013: Fifth
Prospects: The Pulse shapes as New Zealand's strongest side and should make the playoffs at the very least. Amazing rise for the former basket case.
Key gains: Irene van Dyk (Magic), Ama Agbeze (England)
Key Loss: Caitlin Thwaites (Swifts)
Squad: Katrina Grant, Ama Agbeze, Katarina Cooper, Paula Griffin, Joline Henry, Gemma Hazeldine, Claire Kersten, Camilla Lees, Liana Leota, Te Huinga Reo Selby-Rickit, Irene van Dyk, Elias Shadrock, Donna Wilkins.
Coach: Robyn Broughton (third year)
West Coast Fever
2013: Seventh
Prospects: Great attacking line-up. Should do a lot better with Natalie Medhurst feeding Caitlin Bassett.
Key gain: Natalie Medhurst (Firebirds)Key loss: Cath Cox (Vixens)
Squad: Caitlin Bassett, Eboni Beckford-Chambers, Kate Bevridge, Shae Bolton, Ashleigh Brazil. Courtney Bruce, Chanel Gomes, Josie Janz, Natalie Medhurst, Chelsea Pitman, Kaylia Stanton, Khao Watts.
Coach: Norma Plummer (third year)
New South Wales Swifts
2013: Eighth
Prospects: Great pre-season but will that mean better results? Other Australian teams look strong on paper.
Key gains: Caitlin Thwaites (Pulse), Sharni Layton (Thunderbirds)
Key loss: Mo'onia Gerrard (rugby sevens)
Squad: Carla Dziwoki, Kimberlee Green, Paige Hadley, Madeline Hay, April Letton, Sharni Layton, Abbey McColloch, Brooke Miller, Sonia Mkoloma, Susan Pratley, Caitlin Thwaites, Grettel Tippett.
Coach: Rob Wright (first year)
Mainland Tactix
2013: Ninth
Prospects: Bleak. Even with two imports the Tactix do not appear to have the personnel to warrant much faith. Pencil them in for last. Sratch that, use ink.
Key gain: Mwai Kumwenda (Malawi)
Key loss: Jo Harten (England)
Squad: Jade Clarke, Sophia Fenwick, Keshia Grant, Mwai Kumwenda, Nicola Mackle, Jess Moulds, Julianna Naoupu, Hayley Saunders, Louise Thayer, Anna Thompson, Zoe Walker, Jane Watson.
Coach: Leigh Gibbs (third year)
Northern Mystics
2013: Last
Prospects: Any team with Laura Langman in it has to be a contender for the playoffs. Will compete with the Steel and the Pulse for New Zealand bragging rights.
Key gain: Laura Langman (Magic)
Key loss: Grace Rasmussen (Magic)
Squad: Julie Corletto, Kayla Cullen, Anna Harrison, Cathrine Latu, Maria Tutaia, Bailey Mes, Jodi Todd, Laura Langman, Erikana Pederson, Elisapeta Toeava, Nadia Loveday, Temalisi Fakahokotau.
Coach: Debbie Fuller (third year)
