Statistics and other lies
If you get bogged down in the numbers, it is easy to forget how little history actually matters once the players take the court.
But, if you are desperately looking for some positive signs, the Steel has beaten the Magic in four of the six games played in Invercargill, including the last two games. Of course, the Steel has not actually won a game at Stadium Southland since the rebuild.
The situation
The Steel (4-6) must win and keep winning. Some head-scratching earlier in the week revealed the Steel can still scrape into the playoffs.
The franchise needs a lot of results to go its way and will probably need to lift its goal percentage as well. But - and it is an almost apologetic but - there is still hope.
The Steel should beat the Tactix (1-8) in round 13 but will start as the underdog in tonight's game against the Magic (7-2) and the round 14 clash with the Vixens (7-3).
Just Magic
The Magic has been a revelation this season. With wholesale changes to the playing personnel, the Hamilton-based side was meant to spend the year rebuilding. But perhaps the critics underestimated the value of a strong defensive unit.
Casey Kopua and Leana de Bruin have made nearly 100 deflections between them and the team boasts the third-best defensive record in the league, conceding an average of 48.89 goals.
But it is on attack where the Magic has surprised. It has the second-best attacking record with 55.33 goals a game. English shooter Jo Harten has drilled 321 goals from 351 attempts and shapes as the biggest threat to a Steel victory.
Leaky defence
See untold previous articles. The Steel's defence has been an issue since de Bruin left in 2011 and there is little in the way of evidence to suggest improvements have been made.
Statistically, the Steel is not the worst in the league - the hapless Tactix are even worse. But the franchise cannot expect to win many games of netball when it is conceding 62.8 goals a game.
Its strength is at the other end, where 1.98m Jamaican shooter Jhaniele Fowler-Reid leads the league with 436 goals from 466 attempts (93.6%).
She takes more than 70% of the teams shots at goal. Her presence under the net is the reason the Steel has the best attacking record with 60.3 goals.
Master plan
The Steel has mainly stuck to route one: heave the ball up court to Fowler-Reid. But the Pulse has shown the way with two wins over the Magic.
It was able to spread the Magic's defence with Irene van Dyk and Donna Wilkins sharing the shooting load fairly evenly. Steel goal attack Jodi Brown took up more opportunities to shoot at goal in the 73-61 win over the Mystics.
The Steel is a more dangerous unit when Brown is putting up 20-plus shots a game. And that should be the target tonight. The Steel cannot afford to have Kopua and de Bruin double-team Fowler-Reid.
ANZ Championship
Steel v Magic
Where: Invercargill.
When: Tonight, 7.40pm.
Steel: Jhaniele Fowler-Reid, Jodi Brown (captain), Shannon Francois, Phillipa Finch, Wendy Frew, Rachel Rasmussen, Phoenix Karaka, Storm Purvis, Erena Mikaere, Stacey Peeters, Te Paea Selby-Rickit, Gina Crampton.
Magic: Jo Harten, Ellen Halpenny, Grace Rasmussen, Courtney Tairi, Bessie Manu, Leana de Bruin, Casey Kopua (captain), Jamie-Lee Price, Malia Paseka, Brooke Leaver, Joanna Trip, Samantha Sinclair.
Tale of the tape
Record: Played 14, Steel 4 wins, Magic 10 wins.
Biggest win: 66-47, Magic (2012).
Highest score: 66, Magic (2012).
Lowest score: 33, Steel (2011).
Most goals in a game: 44, Jhaniele Fowler-Reid (Steel, 2013).
Closest game: 49-47 to the Steel (2010).
Longest winning streak: Three games, (Magic, twice).
Goals (Magic): 722 goals at 51.57.
Goals (Steel): 654 goals at 46.71.
