It is a longer shot than some Jodi Brown attempts at goal but it is still possible.
The Steel (eight points) must win all three of its remaining games for starters, and that would leave the franchise with 14 points.
It will need a LOT of other results to go its way and will likely have to lift its goal percentage as well.
Perhaps the most realistic way for the Steel to squeak through will be if the Firebirds lose all three of their games and remain marooned on 12 points.
The Firebirds have a tough finish to the regular season with a trip to Adelaide to play the Thunderbirds this Sunday.
They host the Pulse in round 13 and then travel to Hamilton to play the Magic in round 14.
If the Firebirds lose all three games, the Pulse and the Thunderbirds could emerge as potential party-poopers.
The Pulse (10) is lurking dangerously, but two of its remaining four games are in Australia, which will make it difficult for the Wellington-based team.
A key game will be the Pulse-Firebirds clash.
In this scenario, the Steel will need the Pulse to win but lose to the Mystics (round 12) and Fever (round 14). Assuming the Pulse beats the Tactix on Sunday, it will finish on 14 points and tied with the Steel.
The side with the superior goal percentage will progress.
If the Firebirds beat the Pulse but lose their other two games, which is quite within the realms of possibility, they will finish on 14 points.
If the Firebirds muck up the plan by winning too many games, the Steel can still look to the Swifts (12) to fall over.
Fingers crossed, the Swifts will lose all four of their remaining games to open the door for the Steel.
The Swifts, though, have a reasonable run.
They play the Fever in Perth on Monday, host the Thunderbirds (round 12) and Magic (round 13), before travelling to Auckland to play the Mystics in the final round.
Their form would suggest they are good enough to win at least two of those fixtures, which would block that route for the Steel.
The Steel will need the Thunderbirds (eight), who are not out yet either, to do some of its bidding.
Ideally, they will beat either the Firebirds or the Swifts, but hopefully not both. They can still get to 16 points, which could keep their title defence alive.
The Mystics can get to 14 points with wins in their remaining games but are behind seven sides on the competition table.
They could do the Steel a huge favour by beating the Pulse and the Swifts.
If it comes down to goal percentage for the Steel, its leaky defence could come back to bite.
And here is why: a team that has scored 40 goals while conceding 30 goals has a better goal percentage than a team that has scored 50 and conceded 40, even though the goal differential (10) is the same in both cases.
In the first example, the team has a goal percentage of (4030) 1.33%. In the second, the team has a goal percentage of (5040) 1.25%.
The Steel has had no problem scoring goals but stopping them has been a problem.
It has scored 601 but let in 628.
