The painful 45-17 loss to Counties-Manukau in Pukekohe on Sunday has left the side in 11th place and five points adrift of the top eight.
The playoffs are not quite out of reach. But Otago need to reverse their run of four consecutive losses and have other results go their way to sneak into the post-season.
Last year, the benchmark for the playoffs was five wins. Otago are stuck on two wins from seven games, and will need to win all their remaining games to reach five.
They play Manawatu in Palmerston North on Sunday.
The Turbos registered their first win of the season on Wednesday night thanks to a 26-21 defeat of Southland at home.
Otago have Tasman in Dunedin the following week, and the Mako are undefeated so far.
If Otago can win that, they play Northland in Whangarei on October 4 and might still have a shot at the playoffs.
The Taniwha have just one win this season, and that was against Manawatu.
The Tasman game aside, Otago (12 points) have a gentle run-in. But another showing like the meek effort against Counties and it will be curtains.
That loss to Counties effectively counted as double. The Steelers (17 points) are one of the teams jostling for the final playoff spot and they got a leg up on Otago with their big win.
Counties’ run into the playoffs is reasonably challenging. They play Canterbury in Christchurch tomorrow, and Wellington at home on September 27. But they finish with an away assignment against Manawatu, which form suggests they should win.
North Harbour (16 points) have four games remaining, so they remain firmly in the hunt.
They have got Northland in Whangarei tomorrow night. They play Taranaki in New Plymouth midweek before returning home to host Canterbury on September 29.
They complete the round-robin with a trip to Invercargill to play Southland.
Auckland and Southland are locked on 12 points with Otago.
Auckland have an extra game in hand. They host Southland on Sunday but they have storm week in round eight, where they play Hawke’s Bay and Tasman and finish off with a home fixture against Bay of Plenty on October 6.
Southland and Otago are at long odds of reaching the playoffs, and Northland (8) and Manawatu (7) will need long calculators.
Otago have named their side for the game against Manawatu.
Ben Lopas gets the start at loosehead prop, and the hardworking Sam Fischli has been named at openside after filling in admirably at lock.
Will Stodart will team up with Fabian Holland in the second row. Holland is returning from an ankle complaint and will add some beef to the pack.
There is one change in the backs. Waqa Nalaga misses out on the squad and Kyan Rangitutia returns to the starting XV.
NPC
The standings
Wellington 30; Tasman 28; Bay of Plenty 27; Hawke’s Bay 27; Waikato 22; Taranaki 20; Canterbury 20; Counties-Manukau 17; North Harbour 16; Southland 12; Otago 12; Auckland 12; Northland 8; Manawatū 7.
Otago’s last round-robin games:
Sept 22: v Manawatū, Palmerston North
Sept 28: v Tasman, Dunedin
Oct 4: v Northland, Whangārei
Otago team
To play Manawatū
Finn Hurley, Kyan Rangitutia, Hudson Creighton, Thomas Umaga-Jensen, Josh Whaanga, Cameron Millar, James Arscott, Christian Lio-Willie (captain), Sam Fischli, Oliver Haig, Will Stodart, Fabian Holland, Saula Ma’u, Liam Coltman, Ben Lopas.
Reserves: Henry Bell, Abraham Pole, Rohan Wingham, Will Tucker, Harry Taylor, Nathan Hastie, Ajay Faleafaga, Levi Harmon.
