As usual, New Zealand teams will be in the running for the Super 15 title when the season starts for them this weekend. Steve Hepburn looks at the four New Zealand sides north of the Waitaki.
There is plenty of optimism in New Zealand Super 15 teams before the season starts - but then there always is.
Those with a glass-half-full approach might argue the Blues have some exciting new signings, and some heavy hitters; the Chiefs machine will surely just keep rolling on; the Hurricanes have most of their squad back from last year and are a year wiser; and the Crusaders are due for a title.
But it could go all pear-shaped.
The Blues have some flaky players, the Chiefs may get found out, the Hurricanes may not improve and have a tough start, and the Crusaders may simply take too long to get going.
The Chiefs are out for a hat trick of titles but it is not going to be easy for them.
A big loss for them is Craig Clarke. The lock was an inspiration and he could be relied upon to do the simple things right.
They lean heavily upon Aaron Cruden, Liam Messam and Brodie Retallick. If one of them goes down, there could be trouble, particularly if it is Cruden.
They have injuries already but players have stepped up in previous years and should do so again.
The Blues, considering the side they have assembled, have the potential to go all the way.
The backline has plenty of match-winners and they have some quality loose forwards and an All Black front row.
But - and this is a big but - there are still question marks about the team. Some of its All Blacks have been known to take a while to get the wheels turning. Hooker Keven Mealamu barely featured last season and is already missing the first game. Same with Tony Woodcock.
The locks are either old or green and Benji Marshall may sell some seats but can he play rugby?How Ma'a Nonu goes may well determine the Blues' season. He has been ordinary the past three years for the teams he has played for at this level and is recovering from ankle surgery.
But if he finds his All Black form, the Blues will be immensely better.
This is the make-or-break year for Hurricanes coach Mark Hammett. In his fourth season, he has to take them to the playoffs or it is farewell to the capital for the former All Black hooker.
The Hurricanes have the players but tend to lose games they should win.
Few players have left and Beauden Barrett and Victor Vito will be keys. Ardie Savea has the chance to make an impact but one wonders whether he is something of a flat-track bully.
In Christchurch, the Crusaders will be without Dan Carter but have options in the No 10 jersey.
It will pain Highlanders fans if Colin Slade does well in a red and black jersey as he never reached his potential in the South.
The Crusaders will be more direct in their attack and may kick more. The forward pack should be able to win games on its own. Richie McCaw will be looking for a full season and the likes of Luke Romano and Owen Franks will want to dominate games.
The Crusaders have had issues with starting slowly in past years and some of their All Blacks struggling to find form. If they can overcome those issues, they may go close, very close, to getting a title.
Other New Zealand teams
Blues
Coach: Sir John Kirwan (second year).
Captain: Luke Braid.
Key forward: Loose forward Steven Luatua.
Key back: Midfield back Ma'a Nonu.
Last year: 10th.
Prediction: 13th.
Chiefs
Coach: Dave Rennie (third year).
Co-captains: Liam Messam, Aaron Cruden.
Key forward: Loose foward Messam.
Key back: First five Cruden.
Last year: Champions.
Prediction: Fourth.
Hurricanes
Coach: Mark Hammett (fourth year).
Captain: Conrad Smith.
Key forward: Hooker Dane Coles.
Key back: Halfback TJ Perenara.
Last year: 11th.
Prediction: Eighth.
Crusaders
Coach: Todd Blackadder (sixth year).
Captain: Kieran Read.
Key forward: Flanker Richie McCaw.
Key back: Fullback Israel Dagg.
Last year: Semifinalists.
Prediction: Finalists.
