The Kiwi threats north of the Waitaki

Damian McKenzie can be the most influential player in Super Rugby. PHOTOS: GETTY IMAGES

There is a strong likelihood a New Zealand team will be hoisting the silverware at the end of the Super Rugby Pacific campaign. Who will it be, and can we laugh at the fact it will not be the Crusaders again? Sports editor Hayden Meikle assesses the four other Kiwi teams.

BLUES

Last year: Won 12, lost 2, qualified second, beat Drua 36-5 in quarterfinal, beat Brumbies 34-20 in semifinal, beat Chiefs 30-19 in final.

Coach: Vern Cotter (second year).

Key forward: Someone still needs to explain how Hoskins Sotutu did not make the All Blacks last season. He scored 12 tries and was in imperious form as the Blues completely dominated Super Rugby. Expect him to be great again.

Key back: Caleb Clarke does not want to be part of fantasy rugby for some reason and that is a shame as he would be what the Americans call a "stat-stuffer". He led the competition last year in clean breaks and metres gained, and added 10 tries.

One to watch: Payton Spencer, son of Blues great Carlos, has tricks up his sleeve and might be the starting fullback by the end of the campaign.

Chances: Still very clearly the team to beat. Losing locks Patrick Tuipolotu and Sam Darry to injury is a blow, but the Blues are otherwise loaded in every position. Sotutu and Dalton Papali’i rampage in the loose, Ofa Tu’ungafasi anchors a solid scrum, Clarke and Mark Tele’a are cheat codes, and the return of Beauden Barrett to join a playmaking crew already including Harry Plummer and Stephen Perofeta just seems unfair.

Meikle’s prediction: Champions.

CHIEFS

Last year: Won 9, lost 5, qualified fourth, beat Reds 43-21 in quarterfinal, beat Hurricanes 30-19 in semifinal, lost to Blues 41-10 in final.

Star Blues winger Caleb Clarke welcomes back veteran first five Beauden Barrett to the Blues.

Coach: Clayton McMillan (fifth season).

Key forward: How good was Tupou Vaa’i for the All Blacks last year? Unbelievably good. He will take the Chiefs far if he plays like that again.

Key back: Damian McKenzie might still not be everyone’s cup of tea in a test jersey but he is fine wine at Super Rugby level.

One to watch: Leroy Carter joins the Chiefs from the sevens circuit. He is (no surprise) quick and agile, and intriguingly he can play both winger and halfback.

Chances: A cynic might point to the Wallace Sititi injury — such a shame for the rising star — and flickers of concern about the forward pack, and wonder if the Chiefs might fall back this year. But when you have the mercurial DMac and exciting back-up Josh Jacomb, attacking weapons like Etene Nanai-Seturo, Emoni Narawa, Anton Lienert-Brown and Cortez Ratima, and a pack driven by Vaa’i, soon-to-be fit hooker Samisoni Taukei’aho, Samipeni Finau and a bunch of hard-working locks and props, you should do all right.

Meikle’s prediction: Beaten semifinalists.

HURRICANES

Last year: Won 12, lost 2, qualified top, beat Rebels 47-20 in quarterfinal, lost to Chiefs 30-19 in semifinal.

Coach: Clark Laidlaw (second season).

Key forward: Asafo Aumua. One of four captains — ye gods — named by the Hurricanes this week, the ball of energy at hooker will be the glue in the pack.

Key back: His last campaign was derailed by injury but when he returned for the All Blacks, halfback Cam Roigard showed he had lost none of his flair and skill.

Hurricanes hooker Asafo Aumua is primed for a big season.

One to watch: There was no room for Kade Banks at the Blues so the flying winger, who topped the try-scoring charts for North Harbour in the NPC, rolls up at the Canes.

Chances: A wildcard team, as is often the case. The Hurricanes were great last year before stumbling in the playoffs. But losing Ardie Savea, TJ Perenara and Jordie Barrett is significant, and they do not have a top-shelf first five. Aumua, Tyrel Lomax and Pasilio Tosi will ensure the front row demands respect, and young gun Peter Lakai is the star in the loose. Big years from Billy Proctor, Riley Higgins and Ruben Love are needed.

Meikle’s prediction: Seventh.

CRUSADERS

Last year: Won 4, lost 10, ninth. Still funny.

Coach: Rob Penney (second year).

Crusaders fans will not be pleased if Rob Penney’s team miss the playoffs again.

Key forward: Codie Taylor. How badly the Crusaders missed the All Blacks hooker when he was on a break last year. Taylor, even more so than lock Scott Barrett, has the ability to lift everyone around him.

Key back: Will Jordan was a victim of the Crusaders’ truly shocking injury toll last year. He is arguably the premier attacking force in world rugby, and the former perennial champions desperately want him on the field as often as possible.

One to watch: There was a time when Crusaders country churned out world-class first fives. Not now. So, to set the standard for the unconvincing Rivez Reihana and Kaha Temara, the Evil Empire has recruited 34-year-old Australian playmaker James O’Connor. This will be an interesting experiment.

Chances: Obviously, we would all dearly love a repeat of last year’s delightfully awful campaign. But who seriously thinks the Crusaders will be that bad again? There are far too many All Blacks in this squad to expect anything other than a playoff push. Taylor, Barrett, Tamaiti Williams, Fletcher Newell, Ethan Blackadder and Cullen Grace form the nucleus of a fine pack. Noah Hotham will take another leap at halfback, David Havili is as reliable as it gets in midfield, and Chay Fihaki and Sevu Reece are fine supports for Jordan.

Meikle’s prediction: Fifth.