- Expect mighty challenge from Ireland: Meads
- Build-up boring; bring on the game
- Retallick has ‘more to think about’
- Sexton cleared to play in test despite head knock
The wind and rain expected to carry on through to tonight would have most certainly played in their favour against the All Blacks.
Yet perhaps that is another challenge of beating the All Blacks at home — and certainly another challenge of beating them in Dunedin.
There is no doubting the hard and fast conditions of Forsyth Barr Stadium will suit the hosts as they look to clinch a series win.
For all the talk of Eden Park being the impenetrable fortress — the All Blacks extended their winning streak dating back to 1994 there last week — perhaps Dunedin needs some of the same treatment.
Australia’s 23-15 win at Carisbrook in 2001 was the All Blacks’ first loss at the venue in 30 years.
The 2000s were a rocky period in the city — the All Blacks’ three losses that decade were more than the rest of their time in Dunedin.
Of the 46 tests the All Blacks have played in Dunedin, they have lost just five.
Since moving to Forsyth Barr Stadium in 2012, they have won all seven.
That, on top of the conditions, last week’s lop-sided result and the typically quality All Blacks line-up, makes tonight a huge task for Ireland.
Ireland will almost certainly be better than it was in last week’s 42-19 loss.
It controlled the game through the first 20 minutes in Auckland, before the All Blacks’ ability to strike quickly caught it off guard.
Then there was the loss of first five Johnny Sexton, who has been controversially cleared to play in a line-up with just one change — Mack Hansen in for Keith Earls on the right wing.
Ireland run everything off their No 10 and losing him was as good as losing the game last week.
As good as the All Blacks’ defence was for large parts last week, much of it was against an Ireland team lacking its tactical master.
Last time the Irish were on these shores — a decade ago — they were well beaten in their first outing, before being denied by a late Dan Carter dropped goal in a tight scrap in the second test.
If they can turn tonight into a scrap, they are most certainly capable of doing something similar this time around.
But that is easier said than done against an All Black team that, while perhaps lacking in a tight game, remains lethal in an open one.
There is serious firepower in this line-up — Sevu Reece, Beauden Barrett, Rieko Ioane, Leicester Fainga’anuku and co — that, if let loose, can run up a big score on the best of teams.
They can strike quickly and they can strike from anywhere on the park — as Ireland found, as the All Blacks ran in six tries in Auckland.
Dalton Papalii comes into the starting team, while Scott Barrett shifts to lock for a Sam Whitelock under concussion protocol.
That should make for a more mobile forward pack on the faster surface.
Papalii is not the same blockbusting ball carrier as an Akira Ioane or Hoskins Sotutu.
Like Sam Cane, though, he is a worker who will get stuck in if the game tightens up, while retaining value in a looser game.
That is important in a test match, particularly against a team like Ireland.
Tonight holds all the answers.
Either the All Blacks will have wrapped up the series, or we will be heading for a decider in Wellington next weekend.
