Last year, goal percentage came to the Steel's rescue.
This season, it might count them out.
The Steel scraped into the 2009 ANZ Championship play-offs courtesy of superior goal percentage, squeezing out the unlucky Queensland Firebirds.
But the Firebirds could turn the tables on the Steel if they beat the West Coast Fever in Perth on Sunday and the Steel succumbs to the unbeaten New South Wales Swifts in Sydney on Monday.
That would leave the teams tied on 16 points each.
The Firebirds enjoy a superior goal percentage (117.08) thanks to a 75-32 drubbing of the hapless Canterbury Tactix in Brisbane on Monday.
The combined Otago-Southland team (111.81) can eliminate the need for calculators by posting a win.
But a loss would leave it vulnerable.
The Swifts have secured pole position with 12 wins from 12 games, and the Adelaide Thunderbirds are the only other team guaranteed to make the play-offs.
They can cement second place with a win against the Waikato-Bay of Plenty Magic in Rotorua this weekend.
The Magic broke a three-game losing streak with a win against the Central Pulse in Napier on Saturday.
If it wins against the Thunderbirds it will book a place in the play-offs but a loss will leave it in the same boat as the Steel.
Potentially, three teams could end the round-robin phase tied on 16 points, with the semifinal places decided on goal percentage.
If two teams are still equal after goal percentage is taken into account, the results of the games between the two teams will determine which one progresses.
If they are still even then, goal differential will be used to separate the sides.
Failing that, the team with the most goals will go through.
But it should not come to that.
On current form, the Firebirds should prove too strong for the Fever and nab third place.
The Steel is likely to find the Swifts too tough.
But the Otago Daily Times is predicting the Thunderbirds will roll the Magic and clear the way for the Steel to grab the final play-offs spot.
That would set up a minor semifinal with the Steel playing the Firebirds in Brisbane.
