The Swifts have sealed their place and Dalton is predicting the Magic and Adelaide Thunderbirds will join them, with the Steel nudging ahead of the Firebirds and Mystics.
"The Steel look like they've come good at the right time, unlike the likes of the Mystics and Magic, who seemed to have dropped their bundle," Dalton explained.
"[The Steel] are playing really smart netball, they are making it really hard for their opponents to turn the ball over and they've played for 60 minutes, which is my biggest concern for the rest of the New Zealand teams.
"I think Robyn [Broughton, Steel coach] will be taking it one game at a time. Do over the Tactix first, then the Mystics and the Swifts. But I certainly think they are a team who are playing like a semifinalist. I just hope they haven't left their run too late."
The Steel has revived its play-off hopes in recent weeks with wins against the Waikato-Bay of Plenty Magic and the Melbourne Vixens.
But the Queensland Firebirds' 55-54 win against the Magic in Rotorua on Monday night has made the road to the semifinals that little bit harder for the combined Otago-Southland team.
The Firebirds are in fifth place on 10 points and trail the fourth-placed Steel, on 12 points. But the Firebirds have an easy run with home games against the Central Pulse and Canterbury Tactix and an away match against the West Coast Fever to complete the round-robin phase.
Those teams occupy the bottom three rungs on the ANZ Championship points table and, based on form, most would expect the Firebirds to win all three.
The Steel should prove too strong for the struggling Tactix in Invercargill on Monday. But it will still need to win one of its final two matches, against the Northern Mystics, in Auckland and the unbeaten New South Wales Swifts, in Sydney.
"That Mystics side is so unknown. One week they can come out and have a bit of a shocker but they could be a real spoiler," Dalton said.
If the Steel beats the Mystics but loses to the Swifts "it could come down to the Steel and the Firebirds like last year".
Last season, the Steel kept the Firebirds out of the play-offs courtesy of superior goal percentage and there is a chance that scenario could play out again.
The Steel's goal percentage (109.35) is superior to the Firebirds' (108.81). However, the Brisbane-based team has more opportunity to improve, with easier opponents likely to offer less resistance.
While the battle for the minor placings is heating up, Dalton believes the Swifts are playing magnificent netball and will take some beating.
"I love the way they move the ball around and are attacking. Susan Pratley is an unsung hero, the way she moves that attacking end and creates so much for [Catherine] Cox.
"Sonia Mkoloma has made a big difference in terms of lifting their defensive end.
"The Swifts just have that ability to put the hammer down when needed. But there have been that many upsets ... you have to take it one game at a time."
ANZ Championship
Road to the play-offs :-
> NSW Swifts (20 points): Magic (h), Vixens (a), Steel (h)
> Adelaide Thunderbirds (14): Vixens (a), Fever (h), Magic (a)
> Waikato-BOP Magic (14): Swifts (a), Pulse (a), Thunderbirds (h)
> Southern Steel (12): Tactix (h), Mystics (a), Swifts (a)
> Queensland Firebirds (10): Pulse (h), Tactix (h), Fever (a)
> Melbourne Vixens (10): Thunderbirds (h), Swifts (h), Pulse (a)
> Northern Mystics (10): Fever (a), Steel (h), Tactix (a)
