The White House meeting between Donald Trump, J. D. Vance and Volodymyr Zelenskyy was a diplomatic disaster, revealing the true character of the main actors.
It became a high-level political brawl which many perceived as a White House ambush to provide a pretext for a major shift in US political alignment. This realignment has undermined taken-for-granted, long-established alliances and shaken the foundations of the post-war liberal order.
It subverts the rule of law and challenges what we thought of as a rules-based internationalism. It has placed a big question mark over the role of the United Nations and multilateralism more broadly.
The subversion of these co-operative relationships, on which small countries like New Zealand depend, has resulted in a reassertion of tooth-and-claw power-based nationalism reminiscent of the 19th century.
What makes it worse, particularly for American citizens, has been the hollowing out of the Federal government, an extraordinary concentration of power in the Executive, an insipid and emasculated GOP, a divided and paralysed Democrat Party, and daily assaults on the rule of law and the doctrine of checks and balances that have served America well for over two centuries.
On top of that and perhaps most worrying for America’s allies has been the sudden radical shift from an absolute anti-Russian view towards closer ties with Russia and a deliberate separation from traditional Western friends and allies.
This began with the President’s use of pro-Russian rhetoric in relation to Ukraine, followed by the cessation of US support for Ukraine’s energy grid and alignment with Russia, North Korea, and Belarus in key UN Resolutions on Ukraine. Despite international sanctions against Russia, the President has advocated for Russia to rejoin the G7 and promoted US-Russia negotiations on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia.
The White House has phoned Putin on several occasions without officials knowing the content of those discussions. While the initial withdrawal of military support for Ukraine was reversed when Zelenskyy signed a cease-fire agreement, Trump’s readiness to use coercion and side with Russia was evident.
Although it is important to recognise the value of directly seeking the end of fighting and engaging with key parties, the current approach provides little confidence in Trump’s techniques or competence in achieving a genuine, stable end to this war.
In particular Trump has removed the key enforcement measures against foreign agents under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. He disbanded the taskforce to fight foreign interference in US elections. He shut down the Justice Department’s Kleptocapture Unit and the US Agency for International Development and recently the Voice of America.
All of these Executive Orders, not to mention erratic decisions around tariffs, mean that US foreign policy under Trump is not only based on “America First,” but also on removing any entangling alliances that will constrain Trump’s highly idiosyncratic, self-serving interests. And there is nothing, so far, stopping Trump’s infatuation with Vladimir Putin and other dictators.
All of this poses serious challenges for small nations like New Zealand and even our larger neighbour across the Tasman. There are no longer any alliance certainties when the most powerful member in the partnership undermines the United Nations and core democratic values. There is also no guaranteed intelligence security when Trump has been calling for the disbandment of Five Eyes and has removed basic cybersecurity protections against hacking or top secret information being intentionally passed on to the Russians.
The coalition of the willing that has emerged in support of Ukraine does not worry President Trump, nor does it persuade him to take a more even-handed approach to resolving the Ukrainian conflict. The Saudi-sponsored bilateral discussions appear designed to pressure Ukraine into accepting unfavourable conditions. Historically, research shows that coercive conflict management is rarely successful.
So where does this leave New Zealand? In this climate of uncertainty, the government and Opposition are being pressured to increase defence expenditure and if/when there is a peace, prepare to join multilateral peacekeeping operations.
My sense is that the foreign policy chaos that Trump has generated is an opportunity for New Zealand to do some deep thinking about how closely we wish to be aligned with the US given its current tilt towards authoritarian-leaning political regimes. Decoupling doesn't mean abandoning the people of the US. We can re-engage the US when American policy-makers rediscover its foundational principles of democracy, diversity, equity and inclusivity.
I think now is a chance for New Zealand to decouple from old Cold War American-led alliances and reflect critically about which countries we wish to partner with and why. In the first instance I think that we should deepen relations with nations that score highly in the Global Peace Index.
The 2024 GPI rankings indicate Iceland, Ireland, Austria, New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland, Portugal, Denmark, Slovenia, Malaysia, and Canada to be the most peaceful countries while Yemen, Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Congo, Russia, Syria, Israel and Mali are the least peaceful.
The top 10 are a good set of countries to start with if we want to build a more predictable, trustworthy, reliable foundation for co-operative engagement than those currently embroiled in violent conflicts.
Second, we need to initiate some global discussions among and between like-minded countries — those that share our democratic values and beliefs in human rights and the rule of law — about what future we want to realise and what role militaries will play in new visions of international co-operation and collective security that do not depend solely on outdated Cold War structures.
It’s clear that we can’t continue with the status quo.
The prudent course of action is to build strategic coalitions so that we can jointly confront the chaos and uncertainty flowing out of Washington.
New Zealand must work with democratic partners to revive multilateral institutions and build a renewed respect for a rules-based international order that promotes peace and security for all.
• Kevin Clements is retired foundation director of the University of Otago Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies.
