The Infrastructure Investment Summit, being held in Auckland, is one of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s pet projects, and the agenda has him popping up to speak like a jack-in-the-box.
While the success or otherwise of the summit is unlikely to be existential for Luxon or his government, as some more excitable commentators have suggested, it is an event in which he has invested considerable personal capital. Our CEO PM should be in his element, chunking down with like-minded people who have an appetite for his brand of business jargon.
Luxon would like nothing better than to have a trophy to show at the end of the weekend, a bright, shiny deal bringing international capital into New Zealand.
This seems unlikely though. The representatives of overseas wealth funds, banks and investment organisations who have been invited to the summit have chief executives and boards to report to and it would fanciful to suppose that any of the deals pitched at the summit will be so tempting that anyone opens a cheque book right there and then.
If something does emerge signed and sealed, it will likely have already been long under negotiation.
Long term is a crucial aspect of this summit. A three-year parliamentary term carries the inherent risk that in late 2026 New Zealanders may choose to elect a government which wants to tear up the investment summit approach and start again.
With that in mind the government invited the potential finance minister in any Labour-led government, Barbara Edmonds, to speak at the summit. The agreement of her party leader Chris Hipkins that she could and should was a sensible decision. While not an endorsement of the philosophies of opposition parties, it is pragmatic acceptance that stability is important for any such investors, and that no-one benefits if a project employing New Zealanders is suddenly scrapped.
While Luxon will be banking on the success of his summit, it is the progress he makes next week on another of his pet projects — a trade agreement of some description with India — which portends to be much more important for New Zealand Inc.
India is the most populous nation on Earth, and its rapidly-expanding economy is the world’s fifth-largest. It supplies the highest number of migrants to New Zealand, but it is one with which we do precious little business: just 1.4% of our exports head to India, ranking that country as our 15th-largest trading partner.
Luxon has long touted the need for New Zealand to increase its trade with India. He sought out Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at international summits, firstly securing himself time with one of the world’s most important men, and then secondly and crucially snaring the prize of a state visit to India.
That is next week, and the government cannot be accused of not seizing the moment. A substantial delegation of politicians will be on Luxon’s plane alongside a hefty number of business leaders and a kapa haka group. In a canny move given the sports-mad nature of India, a couple of prominent cricketers are also going.
The holy grail, a fully-fledged free trade agreement with India, seems unlikely: New Zealand’s biggest export category is dairy products and India has substantial tariffs in place to preserve its domestic industry.
But this country sells wool, metals, other foodstuffs, wood pulp and recovered paper to India, and imports a range of goods including pharmaceuticals, machinery and textiles. Anything which encourages and expands that two-way trade should be welcomed by all.
The signs are promising — the legwork on agreements such as these is generally done long before a prime minister steps on a plane — but there will no doubt be i’s to dot and t’s to cross. The devil will be in the detail.
After a week of poor polls, a month of foul lunches and a quarter where the government has not gained traction, Luxon will be keen not only to chalk up two wins, but to score successes which resonate with voters. Time will tell.
