As another glass of discounted premium New Zealand wine slips down around the summer barbecue, spare a thought for the winemakers.
There is many a slip between cup and lip, but as recently as mid-to-late last month there were indications of a potential bumper crop in 2011. Whereas in many sectors of the primary produce industry this would be cause for celebration, in the wine industry the news has experts and industry leaders putting the cork back in the bottle.
While it may seem counter-intuitive, the excellent start to the grape-growing season which has seen predictions of a record 300,000-tonne crop may, if it eventuates - and it is still too early to say for certain whether it will - lead to an oversupply of average quality, or even inferior product.
With a mismatch between supply and demand not only will there be incentives - and the necessity - for producers and retailers to engage in further rounds of discounting as the wines begin to hit the shelves later this year or in 2012, but also the carefully established and nourished market position for New Zealand wines as quality product in overseas markets could be threatened.
The New Zealand wine industry is hypersensitive to the supply-demand equation.
Having constructed a "brand" image which places the wine in the quality bracket in most overseas markets - which account for more than 50% of the country's production - and having achieved the benchmarks consistently to meet those quality levels, there is a danger that foisting cheaper wine on to already saturated world markets will only undermine the image.
This in turn will make it difficult for the industry as a whole to demand the prices that make the sector profitable. Achieving the appropriate supply-demand equilibrium is not easy, particularly as the industry faces growing challenges.
Over-cropping and thus yield has always been an issue for viticulturalists and winemakers, with quality of the resultant wine at least initially dependent upon handling in the vineyard.
All other things being equal careful bunch pruning will impact on the quality and size of the remaining bunches - but also lead to lower yields. In the short term, this will mean lower cash flows.
And such a prospect for individual wineries, many of whom are struggling to meet debt repayments, is invidious. But for the industry as a whole it is vital.
As a 2010 Deloittes survey on the state of the wine-making business confirms, all is not rosy in the country's vineyards. It reveals that, with the exception of the smallest wineries, there has been a steady decline in profitability for the second year in succession. Contributing to this are falling grape prices, surplus stock and high debt levels.
Softening demand for wine - regarded by many as a luxury item - dampened by the financial crisis and has not yet fully recovered. Falling land prices, likewise hit by the meltdown and its fallout, have added to "turbulence" in the sector.
A number of wineries in Central Otago, and even more in Marlborough, have been put on the market.
As one Wanaka-based business adviser rather gloomily put it: "While it seems the participants are surviving at present, the short-term outlook is not positive. The industry as a whole is enduring some pain and it will get worse before it gets better."
On the positive side, winemaking - certainly in Central Otago - grew up as a pioneering industry against significant odds, not least the scepticism of investors, the general public and the consumer. Many of the better known "names" are no strangers to adversity and are in the business for the long haul.
Further, Central Otago cements its position as one of the great pinot noir producing regions of the world with every vintage.
So while oversupply is a potential problem for the region, indeed the country, there are enough top-tier winemakers who know that if the industry is to have a long-term future then quality must be protected at all costs.
And, while it might seem unsporting to mention it, for the consumer at least, there is an up side to all this: an abundance of good-quality wine at very reasonable prices to quaff around the barbecue.
