A balanced hand

If it is a truism that political leaders are never more popular than in their first few weeks, it has to be said that Prime Minister-elect John Key extended the electorate's largesse towards himself and his party by the manner in which he set about forming a new government.

He was affable, inclusive and decisive, putting together confidence and supply agreements with United Future's Peter Dunne, Act New Zealand's Rodney Hide and the Maori Party's Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples with remarkable speed - even with two of these containing potentially fractious "fish-hooks".

A review of the Emissions Trading Scheme and ministerial positions including Local Government and Regulatory Reform for Mr Hide, and Consumer Affairs and associate roles in Education and Defence for his deputy, Heather Roy, all outside Cabinet, form the basis of the National-Act agreement.

Agreement with the Maori Party came through a combination of policy and portfolios: Dr Sharples takes Maori Affairs, Mrs Turia the Community and Voluntary sector, with additional associate portfolios for them both, and a commitment not to scrap the Maori seats.

Critically, a review of the Foreshore and Seabed Act is promised.

This is astute politics.

Within nine days, Mr Key and his advisers assembled arrangements that offer the National-led minority government 70 votes on confidence and supply.

More importantly, and with an eye to the longer term, it occupies the wide centre ground of New Zealand politics previously colonised by Labour, with Act to the Right, the Maori Party counterbalancing on the Left, and Peter Dunne in the centre.

If Mr Key can make it work, it could be the beginning of a longstanding occupation.

To this end, he was expected to introduce new faces to the Cabinet yesterday.

With a total executive of 28 - the same as under the last Labour-led administration - five portfolios from other parties and three from National outside Cabinet, that left 20 in the National-only Cabinet.

Some came as no surprise: Bill English, the long-serving, intellectual workhorse of the parliamentary National Party as deputy prime minister with the Finance and Infrastructure portfolios, Gerry Brownlee in Energy and as leader of the House overseeing the impending legislative programme, Simon Power in Justice and State-owned Enterprises, Tony Ryall in Health and State Services, Nick Smith in Environment and Climate Change, Judith Collins in Police and Corrections, and Anne Tolley in Education.

Of the newer faces, lawyer Chris Finlayson, although not a first-termer, is relatively unfamiliar.

He assumes the role of attorney-general and the portfolios of Treaty Negotiations and Arts, Culture and Heritage.

Tim Groser gets Trade and Conservation, while complete newcomer Steven Joyce is rewarded for his successful campaign strategy with Transport and Communications.

Paula Bennett is catapulted from relative obscurity into Social Development and Employment, Kate Wilkinson takes Labour and Jonathan Coleman Immigration and Broadcasting.

The fresh faces are threaded among the remaining more experienced ministers - David Carter (Agriculture); Murray McCully (Foreign Affairs); Wayne Mapp (Defence); Georgina te Heuheu (Courts); Phil Heatley (Fisheries); and Pansy Wong (Ethnic Affairs).

Notably absent from the Cabinet of 20 is Maurice Williamson (Building and Construction and Customs) outside the inner team, presumably for showing a persistent inability to toe the party line.

Joining him there are Richard Worth (Internal Affairs) and John Carter (Civil Defence).

None of these three is young and can only regard such positions as last-term consolation prizes.

Of the three, probably only a disenfranchised Mr Williamson displays the temperament to cause problems.

The immediate response is that Mr Key has continued in his briskly positive mode and got the balance about right.

Now comes the difficult part: moulding this executive into an effective and harmonious team able to put longstanding differences aside and address the many issues facing the country - not least the recession and the international financial crisis.

If anyone inspires confidence with his experience and economic competence it is Mr English, on whom much of the burden will fall.

While he has his head down on the nuts and bolts of this, Mr Key would do well to keep a close eye on manoeuverings around the Foreshore and Seabed Act and the Emissions Trading Scheme.

These are the two most obvious faultlines along which the new Prime Minister, who with his Cabinet will be sworn in tomorrow, must tread with care.

Little detail on these critical policy areas has been spelled out in the agreements with the respective parties, leaving much scope for mischief and misunderstandings.

That said, Mr Key has exceeded expectations in his first 10 days as prime minister-elect, ensuring a more harmonious honeymoon than many an incoming leader could dare to entertain.

Whether the subsequent "marriage" proves enduring will provide the real test of his mettle.

 

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