The comments from former Otago Peninsular egg-farmer Pieter Bloem come as Biosecurity New Zealand works through the culling of 80,000 chickens at a Mainland Poultry farm at Hillgrove, near Moeraki, after the H7N6 strain of avian flu was confirmed last weekend.
Another farm, near Dunedin, was also placed under control for testing as a precautionary measure yesterday.
The property is not owned by Mainland Poultry and Biosecurity New Zealand were investigating if there were any links between the first property and this one.
It has 6000 chickens.
Mr Bloem said the industry knew an outbreak was coming.
Further, free-range flocks would continue to come into contact with waterfowl with the virus and after this outbreak was contained, egg producers would simply be awaiting the next one.
"We’re paying a high price for the free-range bull...."
The initial messaging from the ministry had been overly optimistic, he said.
First it was hoped the outbreak could be confined to one shed at Hillgrove "and then there’s two sheds the next day".
"The whole lot will be going.
"It wasn’t ... a matter of ‘if’ it would happen, it was ‘when’ it was going to happen."
There were always risks the disease could spread through free-range practices.
However, he reiterated New Zealand had been free of the virus for decades, and the focus had to be on curbing this present strain.
"It has potential implications for free range longer term if [the spread of disease] continues to happen.
"New Zealand has had a unique position in the world in its freedom from highly pathogenic avian influenza and a couple of other major poultry diseases.
"We would like to eradicate this and get back to that position if we can."
Mainland Poultry chief executive John McKay said it had begun the culling of birds in the two affected sheds at Hillgrove Farm.
"It is expected to take two to three days, using industry standard practice of CO₂ containerised gas. This method is in line with the Code of Welfare."
Safe animal welfare campaign director Jessica Chambers said the culling of 80,000 hens was distressing.
"This is a devastating blow for hens. We knew that flu was coming. We just didn’t know it was going to be this strain, unfortunately."
Hopefully, it should lead to some serious discussions about the way animals are being farmed in New Zealand, she said.
"Some would argue that indoor farming reduces bird flu risks by eliminating exposure to wild birds.
"Others would argue that intensive farming systems, in this case, one that houses hundreds of thousands of animals in one area create the ideal conditions for the spread of disease on a massive scale."
Two Otago egg producers declined to comment yesterday.
They would not say if the possible spread of the bird flu was worrying for the industry, nor if it was their farms that were affected.
Otago Farmers’ Market general manager Michele Driscoll said she had not heard of any suppliers to the market that had been affected or implicated, but "obviously we will be checking right up to the final minute".
Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard reminded people only one farm was confirmed infected.
"We continue to test, track and trace. Our focus is on limiting any impacts on the sector."
Biosecurity New Zealand deputy director-general Stuart Anderson said over 100 staff across MPI, including frontline biosecurity, trade and market access, veterinarians, agriculture, communications, and food safety were contributing to the response.
"The risk to human health remains low, and there are no concerns for food safety or wildlife.
"Avian influenza viruses are killed by cooking, so it remains safe to eat thoroughly cooked egg and poultry products.
"Raw eggs have always been considered a high-risk food.
"Our advice remains not to consume or serve raw eggs, especially to those with low or compromised immune systems, as the eggs may contain harmful pathogens, including salmonella."
