Labour was well and truly battered in the 2023 election, but, given that, the party was more effervescent than one might have expected at its 2024 party conference, held over the weekend in Christchurch.
This was more than merely putting a brave face on things. The party faithful genuinely seemed to be in an ebullient mood, as Labour did a good job of presenting a united front in its job of holding the government to account.
Although this was a good conference for Labour, plenty of hard yards will need to be done before it can present itself as an alternative government.
At the moment the spring in its step is due to its perception of the unpopularity of the parties in the coalition government. Labour’s internal polling — which, unsurprisingly, it was willing on this occasion to publicise — has it level or at the same support as National, and also puts Labour leader Chris Hipkins slightly ahead of National’s Christopher Luxon as preferred prime minister.
This is certainly an improvement on where the party stood 12 months ago, but the numbers need to be treated with caution. Both Act New Zealand (10%) and New Zealand First (6%) polled well enough for a second term of the current governing arrangement to be a real possibility.
Also, for all it decries the "coalition of chaos", Labour will also likely need to form a triumvirate government and all the accusations it makes of the instability of the present tenants in the Beehive will be doubled down on when it comes to its own administration options, should it come to that in 2026.
Labour should not mistake the angry protests on Parliament’s lawn from various groups as a demonstration of nationwide dissatisfaction with the government. The centre right parties won a clear majority last October and that support has held up remarkably well in what has been a difficult first 12 months in power.
Regaining the base support which ebbed away from it during the 2023 election is a good start in its bid to return to the treasury benches, but Labour still needs to convince what, for want of a better term, could be called middle New Zealand, that it deserves to govern again.
Hipkins is well aware of this. He has sounded a note of contrition in pre-conference interviews about Labour needing to learn from its mistakes while in office, sentiments he reiterated in his leaders address on Sunday.
The two concrete announcements were that Labour would back the Dunedin hospital rebuild, and that it would back away from Aukus pillar 2.
The first was easy politics; a pledge to "build Dunedin hospital" — while welcome, given the ODT’s support for doing exactly that — costs Labour nothing as it does not need to pay the bills at the moment.
The second is harder given the, generally, bi-partisan approach New Zealand’s political parties have taken in the past to security and foreign affairs issues.
Whichever way New Zealand ultimately does on the security pact it risks offending major trading partners, something any government will be loath to do given the country’s fragile economic state. But, again, this is a call which will likely appeal to Labour’s base and is one which it will not be in charge of implementing so it, too, is an easy pledge to make.
The hard work is still to come, particularly in crafting a tax policy which can withstand the main attack line of Labour’s opponents — that it has never seen a tax it did not like.
Hipkins has adapted well to opposition, unsurprisingly, given his first three terms in politics were out of government. He made his name robustly prosecuting various education ministers and being an effective chief whip.
In the House Hipkins has, generally successfully, managed to strike a balance which falls on the right side of genuine political inquiry as opposed to shrill partisan attacks.
But it is out on the hustings where he needs to make his mark. As 2024 closes Hipkins has given Labour a foundation to rebuild from.
In 2025 he needs to needs to add some robust structure to that.
