Good morning, or good whatever time you read this. I'm back, and back with your summer outlook, a tale of a town that was drenched by a one-and-a-half-hour storm and finally, a look back at November!
First, let's start with the summer outlook, I just had a read through Niwa's press release and I can only see one part that I disagree with, that being rainfall, anyway, let's get into it!
First, we are entering a weak La Nina period with sea surface temperatures (SST) decreasing in tropical areas and rising in more southern areas. In fact, SSTs at Brighton Beach are 5degC above average! Going back on land, our temperatures have a 70% chance of being higher than usual but I think it's more of a 90% chance, just look outside! Additionally, our soil moisture is headed downhill, the grass is already dying off! River flow is also really low and just heading down. The Silver Stream is at half of the median flow, the Taieri River is at 1/3 of its median flow and the Leith is at roughly 1/4 of its usual flow. Don't be surprised if a drought is declared! Summer is looking to be beautiful but brutal!
Now, to talk about Roxburgh. On Sunday they were lashed with heavy, no, torrential rain in a thunderstorm lasting 1 and a half hours. They received 60mm during the storm. The clean-up began straight up and from what I can see, they still don't have water. Roxburgh school closed for the week but hopes to open on Monday. Also, shout out to Jonty and Tiaan McKinnel for kayaking on the Clutha River, legends.
Forecast:
This hot weather should continue, with every day in the twenties and around 5 or 6/7 days in the mid-twenties or higher.
Temperatures: High/Low
Friday: 30degC / 12degC
Saturday: 29degC / 12degC
Sunday: 28degC / 11degC
Monday: 28degC / 12degC
Tuesday: 26degC / 13degC
Wednesday: ~22degC / 12degC
Thursday: ~24degC / 11degC
Friday: ~26degC / 12degC
Cyclones and Hurricanes:
I forecast tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Indian Ocean earlier in the week, and that has now formed into Cyclone Dahlia but most likely won't make landfall anywhere as a notable storm. There is a medium chance of cyclonic formation in the Andaman Sea. Finally, Hurricane 3 has formed off the coast of India- It may make landfall as a tropical depression in Sri Lanka. There is no other Tropical activity to report.
Thanks for reading, I had a great time writing this, Merry summer and good temperatures for all!
