Nats, Act could govern on latest poll result

Christopher Luxon at the National Party southern regional conference at the Taieri Bowling Club...
National Party leader Christopher Luxon. FILE PHOTO: STEPHEN JAQUIERY
National has extended its lead over Labour in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll, scoring 37.4 per cent, up 0.6 points from last month's poll.

Labour polled 34.2 per cent, unchanged from last month. The Greens scored 8.3 per cent, down 1.4 points, and Act scored 9.4 per cent, down 1.5 points.

NZ First was up 0.5 points to 2.8 per cent, while Te Pāti Māori was down 0.6 points to 1.8 per cent.

National would get 50 seats on those numbers, enough to govern with Act, who would have 12 seats.

Labour and the Greens could not form a government on this poll. Labour would get 45 seats, and the Greens would get 11. If Te Pāti Māori wins an electorate seat, it would get 2 seats.

The results were published on Saturday, as Tauranga headed to the polls in a byelection triggered by National MP Simon Bridges' retirement. National's candidate, Simon Uffindell is widely tipped to win the contest in the staunchly blue seat.

The poll did not release information about the favourability of leaders, or who was the electorate's preferred prime minister.

The most important issues for voters were the cost of living, with about 25 per cent of those polled listing it as a "major" issue, followed by the economy, which was chosen as a "major" issue by 15 per cent of people. Law and order was the third highest scoring issue.

The poll recorded the electorate has a strong negative sentiment.

Fifty per cent of people think the country is heading in the "wrong direction" and just 36 per cent of people think it is heading in the "right direction".

This is an important metric for pollsters because it is often said to "lead" the party vote - in other words, if a large number of people think the country is heading in the wrong direction, that tends to be followed by a decrease in the governing party's vote.

National and Labour's pollsters strongly disagree over whether the country is heading in the wrong or the right track.

Curia polls for National, and its poll shows a strong "wrong direction" sentiment.

However the June corporate poll from Labour's pollster Talbot-Mills showed a very different result, with 50 per cent of people saying the country was heading in the "right direction", while 42 per cent of people said it was heading in the "wrong direction".

The poll was conducted from Wednesday, June 1 to Sunday, June 12, 2022. The sample size was 1200 eligible New Zealand voters - 800 by phone and 400 by online panel. The margin of error is 2.8 per cent.

 

The New Zealand Herald