Hipkins could be confirmed as Prime Minister as early as this morning - sources have confirmed to the New Zealand Herald that there is a push in the Labour Party to unite support behind him. His name might be the only one on the ballot when nominations close at 9am.
A Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, which ran on Thursday and Friday, found Hipkins to be the most popular choice to replace Jacinda Ardern, winning 30 per cent of support among the public.
He was followed by Kiritapu Allan, who polled 10 per cent, Nanaia Mahuta with 8 per cent and Michael Wood on 6 per cent.
But none of the candidates produced a convincing majority among people polled - the most common response was “unsure”, on 41 per cent.
The poll comes as the candidates to be the next prime minister face their first hurdle: the deadline for nominations, which closes at 9am on Saturday.
If one candidate is able to convince their colleagues that only they have the 43 votes needed to win a two-thirds majority in caucus, a result will be made public on Saturday morning, announcing the victor as the next likely prime minister.
The only obstacle they would face at that point is a formal vote in caucus to endorse them as the next leader.
If multiple candidates put their hats in the ring, Kiwis will have to wait until at least after a caucus meeting at 1pm on Sunday.
Taxpayers’ Union executive director Jordan Williams, who commissioned the poll, said “the only option is Chris Hipkins”.
Hipkins was supported by 30 per cent of National, 28 per cent of Act, and 20 per cent of “other” voters, suggesting widespread support.
Williams said this showed Hipkins was the only candidate who could appeal not just to rusted-on Labour and Greens supporters, but also among marginal voters Labour will need to win.
“Based on this snap poll, every other leadership contender would lose votes for Labour,” Williams said.
Hipkins is himself keeping mum about his intentions, neither ruling himself in nor out of the race.
Speaking at Wellington Airport yesterday, Hipkins said he was involved in “conversations” with colleagues “about making sure that we make a good, sound decision about who should be the leader of the party, that the party then unites behind that new leader and that we continue to provide the stability of leadership that New Zealanders have come to expect from us for the last five and a half years”.
“The conversations that I’ve had with my colleagues suggest that they take their responsibility very, very seriously, there is no fight going on here, everybody is just really constructively engaged in making sure we make a good decision,” he said.
Going into Saturday, Hipkins, Allan, and Wood’s names all remained in the mix for a leadership or deputy position.
Another possible contender floated as deputy is Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni.
Senior Labour Ministers Grant Robertson, Kelvin Davis, and Megan Woods have all ruled themselves out.
The poll also asked about some Labour policies that a new leader might ditch. At the end of 2022, Ardern said she would narrow Labour’s agenda after the summer, jettisoning some unpopular policies.
On the basis of this poll, voters are keen to ditch Three Waters reforms, with 58 per cent of people wanting the policy gone, with only 18 per cent supporting it.
But as most of the Government’s Three Waters legislation has already passed, the Government is highly unlikely to backtrack on it, barring minor adjustments.
A future Labour leader could decide to dump other policies, however.
Labour’s next most unpopular policy is its plan to reduce speed limits around the country, with 53 per cent of voters wanting that policy gone, and only 32 per cent wanting it kept.
Forty-seven per cent of people want the TVNZ-RNZ merger gone, with only 24 per cent of voters wanting it kept.
Two policies that were more popular than unpopular were Kiwibuild and the plan to build Auckland light rail. Forty-three per cent of voters want Kiwibuild kept, compared to just 28 per cent who want it gone. The margin for Auckland light rail was similar - 45 per cent want it kept, 27 per cent want it scrapped.
Labour MPs vacated Napier on Friday, where they had been congregating this week for their annual caucus retreat, and where Ardern made the shock announcement she would retire.
Caucus agreements prohibit any of the candidates for her job openly declaring they are in the race, but it appears the Labour party leadership, including Party president Jill Day, and even Ardern herself, is confident a result can be stitched up by Sunday.
“I expect them to deliver a result. Everything I’ve seen from the caucus and heard from the caucus is they are very determined to make their decision on Sunday,” Ardern said at Napier Airport.
This might allow a new prime minister to be sworn in ahead of a busy few weeks in politics, including Labour’s pilgrimage to Rātana, and Waitangi Day commemorations. Parliament is not set to return until February 14.
If Labour’s caucus is unable to agree on a leader, then the choice is kicked to the wider membership, along with affiliated labour unions and caucus. Labour thinks this process can be completed by the latest date Ardern said she would stay to, which is February 7.
Labour MPs are heading back to their home constituencies or straight to Wellington where the caucus vote will be held.
Labour’s Māori caucus will also meet on Saturday to decide its position on the leadership. Its fifteen or so votes may tip the balance in the favour of one candidate or another.
“But electing Chris Hipkins won’t be enough,” Williams said.
“This poll sends a clear message that some of Jacinda Ardern’s policies will need to be scrapped if the new leader is to attract back those who voted for Labour at the last election, but have since shifted.
“The message to the next Prime Minister on Three Waters is particularly overwhelming. Even those who voted Labour at the last election told our pollsters – by a majority of more than two-to-one – that they want the next Prime Minister to scrap the controversial water reforms. Those are the very people the new PM will need bring back into the fold if the Government is to stay electorally viable.
“This poll shows just how deeply unpopular Three Waters, and the RNZ/TVNZ merger have become, even among Labour’s potential supporters.”
The poll took in 1000 respondents over Thursday and Friday. A snap poll, it only took in online respondents, rather than a mix of phone and online respondents.
Online respondents tend to skew to the left of the general public.
The maximum sampling error for a result of 50 per cent is 3.1 per cent, at the 95 per cent confidence level.
