That much seems inevitable, regardless of whether consumers are billed by the Dunedin City Council or by a newly established water company.
Cr Steve Walker is one person who observed water rates had previously been kept low.
"I don’t think the public realise the value of what they get now," he said.
"The bottom line is, they ain’t paying enough."
Modelling indicates consumers might have a little less pain over the next decade if the council replaces its Three Waters department with a company that would take on more debt.
However, councillors have indicated their preference is for delivery of water services to stay in-house — this is what they will put in front of the public as their No 1 option.
The council will also consult the public on a second option — setting up a company to deliver water services.
Rising bills are coming, either way.
Cr Christine Garey said Three Waters reform was complex and "the community, in my view, have no idea what’s coming at them".
She felt in-house delivery was the right option to present to the public as the council’s preference going into consultation.
Cr Garey would like to see a review after two years.
The council’s modelling indicated keeping the services in-house could lead to the average customer charge per connection rising from $2024, including GST, in 2024-25 to $4280 in 2033-34.
If strong public backing for a council-owned water company led to one being set up, it probably would not be established until July 2027.
The modelling instead assumed a starting point of July this year for a company, for comparison purposes.
This showed the average customer charge per connection increasing to $4202 in 2033-34.
The $2024 average for this year may itself be a surprise for some ratepayers, appearing to be steeper than is charged. It seems to reflect existing water costs having been somewhat masked on rates invoices through the council running deficits in recent years, as it chose not to fully fund depreciation.
If it continues with the in-house model, the council will need to fully fund depreciation by the 2027-28 financial year.
As far as consumers are concerned, a graph suggested an initial advantage from having a water company, but the gap was close to closing by the end of 2033-34.
During discussions at a council meeting last week, Dunedin Mayor Jules Radich suggested keeping services in-house aligned with "keeping control of our own destiny".
"It gives us the pathway of carrying on as we are, because we’ve done a lot of work in recent years to get our ... Three Waters planning up to a higher state of investment and activity."
Modelling suggested a company would take on $157 million more debt than in-house delivery over 10 years and net debt could reach 405% of revenue, compared with 314% for the in-house option.
Cr Walker said he was keen to see public feedback.
"As is clear from the papers ... there are multiple benefits one way or t’other," Cr Walker said.
Advantages of setting up a company might include the council being less constrained in its spending in other areas.
A risk of reduced co-ordination with other council activities was flagged as a potential disadvantage.
Cr Sophie Barker said the council had learnt a lot from its consultation about the ultimately unsuccessful proposal to sell Aurora Energy.
One theme was about retaining assets, and protection against privatisation might be another, Cr Barker said.
Cr Carmen Houlahan reflected on water reform brought by successive governments, describing the experience as a rollercoaster.
Cr Jim O’Malley said when water reform started, the Dunedin council headed in a direction of increasing expenditure on maintenance and renewal of assets "while almost every other council in the country went into the foetal position and started to howl".
"Four years later, we are far enough into that investment programme that, in fact, we are in a position to actually consider in-house [delivery]."
A report is to come before the council on March 18 asking it to consider a consultation document about the two options.
The council also decided to sign a memorandum of understanding with Christchurch City Council exploring the possibility of sharing some services.
Christchurch councillors have yet to consider the proposed agreement.
