It is a guessing game.
And Russia always plays its cards close to its chest.
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin broke a month-long public silence on the standoff between the West and Moscow over Ukraine — but left the world guessing about his next move.
In his address, Putin accused the United States and Nato of ignoring Russia’s key demands to rule out ever admitting Ukraine and other ex-Soviet nations to the organisation, to refrain from deploying offensive weapons near Russia, to roll back deployments to Eastern Europe and of using Ukraine as "a tool".
But what next?
Ukrainians are also guessing but they have lived with the same threat for eight years.
In the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, as interpreter and musician Oleksiy Petrenko tells it, this time it feels different from previous Russian displays at the border.
"The difference is obviously the higher numbers and locations [of troops], including in the almost annexed [by Russia] Belarus and their visibility to Europe and the US."
Russian media, known for its propaganda spin, has also upped the ante.
"In Russian media, some of the officials or semi-officials are also bolder this time ... ‘let’s bend Kiev into submission by force’.
"Like, not much new, but a lot more official and vocal this time around ..."
That has led to a heightened reaction on the ground.
"Some days the only talk you hear around you is invasion-related. You start hearing ‘war’ and other related words from people who had never even been interested in the subject before."
Petrenko says that anxiety is translating into "nervous jokes" and what to do "in case".
"Some have actually started preparing their ‘emergency kits’, some are thinking of the ways and means to get their families to safety, some are enlisting in territorial defence units.
"There are banners for joining these units in the Kiev Metro — showing ordinary people in their civilian clothes and the same people in military fatigues," he says.
"Again, kind of nothing new but the scale seems and feels a lot bigger and scarier this time."
The Russian tactics employed have been seen time and time again and he points the finger at Moscow for unrest in Belarus and Kazakhstan.
"It’s exactly the same playbook the KGB has used since WW2."
For Kateryna Kyselyova, Osvitoria.Media editor in chief, it is the proximity of the Russian troops to the Ukrainian capital that is off-putting.
"Russian troops have never been so close to Kiev, it’s 90km to the border with Belarus, that’s very close."
She describes the feeling on the ground in the city as mixed.
"Some are really getting ready to fight — we’ve printed out instructions of what to do in case of war, we have our bag with documents, some cash and basic items ready.
"My husband has been recently checking his radio transmitter with our son. It was funny in a way to hear a 6-year-old boy say: ‘Hello, hello, any Katsap [a derogatory term in Ukrainian meaning billy goat that plays into stereotypes of bearded Russian men] there?’, my husband’s enrolled in Kiev territory defence groups — they know exactly what they’ll do and where they’ll get arms."
Others prefer a more ostrich-like approach.
"Other people explicitly and even aggressively reject any threat — they are ready to tear anyone apart for mentioning possible invasion."
Naturally that extends to the media, Kyselyova says.
"We recently ran a story listing items to put into an emergency bag — we got tonnes of hate in the comments: accusing us of accelerating a state of panic."
Another sentiment was high anxiety.
"I hear my girlfriends all say the same thing: ‘I’m afraid of war, I can’t stop thinking about it’."
"This time it’s different also due to tremendous support from countries across the globe — at least now it feels we are not alone, we won’t be the only ones fighting if need be."
Kiev National Economic University Associate Prof Denys Lifintsev says recognising this is not new is key to understanding where things are now.
"It is important to understand that Russian aggression has been going on for around eight years already.
This time it is clear that the number of Russian soldiers and the amount of weapons seen from the satellites prove that the occupants are possibly preparing for further and larger invasion."
Lifintsev believes Ukraine needs to prepare.
"We believe that the stronger our army is and the more united our friends are, the less likely Putin will agree to start further invasion. We hope political and economical sanctions will work, but we must be ready for worst-case scenarios.
"In general, the more Ukraine is prepared, the less likely a larger war happens."
"I left to Antaliya, Turkey because I don’t want to run with two children under bullets if invasion occurs."
At this stage that is for two months but she is uncertain and her rising fear has been a slow burn.
"When I first heard about troops in November my friends and I said, ‘Pffft, this is old news, troops have been amassing there for a year or more and Putin likes Cold War methodology: threats and showing off."
That was to change, she says.
"The rhetoric from Russia is different, often very aggressive and as if Ukraine does not exist, they avoid even saying Ukraine sometimes, for example, ‘we will fight Nato on our border’ not ‘we will invade Ukraine’."
Savchenko says the international reaction to the latest threat is both "scary and inspiring".
"I am happy that now — eight years later — they finally recognise Russia as a threat. Governments are sending weapons and instructors instead of expressing ‘deep concern’."
"The first attack on Ukraine was just after the Revolution of Dignity [in 2014], everything was really chaotic, there was no government. President Viktor Yanukovych had just escaped to Russia, and Russia took advantage of a moment of uncertainty.
"They annexed Crimea and invaded our eastern border unexpectedly, no-one was ready for it, our army was really weak and still managed to stop a wider invasion."
He reckons since then Ukraine has grown stronger — culturally and militarily.
"If there is one positive thing in this whole situation, it is that the people of Ukraine have finally rediscovered their identity, which was buried after centuries of Russification."
Ukraine had found its fight.
"This time Ukraine is definitely more prepared for an attack, plus we have gained a lot of support from the United States, Canada and Europe."
His family and friends are holding up well, he says.
"It’s funny but they have been calming me down more than I have calmed them, they’re worrying about possible invasion but it feels like there is less fear in Ukraine than there is here in the United States."
Khlibets thinks the world is tired of Putinesque machismo.
"I think everyone is tired of Russia being a bully. The whole world has seen what they’ve done to Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine."
"The saddest part for me in Putin’s geopolitical game is that he has chosen my homeland as his latest battlefield."
Yet Khlibets, like anyone in or with an eye on Ukraine, concedes Putin’s motives are a guessing game.
"Nobody knows what to expect from him."
