Quake money lowers current account deficit

Foreign capital coming in to repair earthquake damage helped reduce the current account deficit....
Foreign capital coming in to repair earthquake damage helped reduce the current account deficit. Photo by David Gideon.
Reinsurance by New Zealand's insurers has so far seen an estimated $1.7 billion of foreign money coming into the country to help finance the repair of the damage caused by the Canterbury earthquake.

That money helped knock about 0.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) off the current account deficit.

"Indeed, more recent estimates suggest that as much as this again may be the final truth," BNZ research economist Stephen Toplis said.

"It just goes to show that all you need to fix the nation's problems is a decent earthquake every quarter. Wrong. What it does show is just what weird and wonderful beasts external accounts can be and how carefully one must interpret them."

For the record, New Zealand's current account deficit stood at 3.1% for the year ended September, down slightly on the 3.2% for the previous corresponding period.

Last year's figure had substantial support from the tax bill that banks owned offshore paid to the Inland Revenue Department, he said.

Importantly, the merchandise trade balance was strengthening.

For the year ended September, it was a surplus of 1.7% of GDP - the highest reading since March 2002.

"We think it goes higher yet and is set to peak at 2.9% of GDP this time next year. To cap things off, we see the trade balance remaining in surplus for the foreseeable future," Mr Toplis said.

The strength could be attributed to weakness in domestic demand capping past imports and very strong terms of trade.

But there was nothing wrong with that, he said.

ANZ-National Bank economist Mark Smith said that, in non-seasonally adjusted terms, a quarterly deficit of $1.77 billion was recorded for the third quarter.

In seasonally adjusted terms, it was $35 million, only the third quarterly current account surplus since 1987.

"Were it not for reinsurance inflows from the Canterbury earthquakes, the current account position would have been much worse."

Higher earnings on overseas investments and low domestic profitability also contributed to the second-lowest quarterly seasonally adjusted invisibles deficit since the early 1990s recession, he said.

However, the services balance remained in deficit.

Increasing services imports was driven by broad-based increases in transport and travel services, with spending by New Zealand residents overseas and higher international freight costs particularly influential, Mr Smith said.

Exports of services remained flat.

While visitor arrivals continued to trend higher in the September quarter, the composition had changed.

Fewer visitors were coming from the higher-spending countries and there were more Australian visitors, who tended to have shorter stays and spent less per day.

With the number of higher-spending European and American tourists unlikely to grow in the short term, given challenges in their respective economies and the high New Zealand dollar, the services trade balance was unlikely to see much material improvement in the near term, he said.

ANZ-National Bank expected the current account deficit to move higher, although the one-offs and low domestic profitability would cap the deterioration in the near term.

"We do not expect a return to large current account deficits over the next few years. In the present environment, that would be a recipe for a credit rating downgrade.

"Instead, we see the current account deficit remaining in a 2% to 4% of GDP range over the next couple of years," Mr Smith said.

 

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