Facing up to global farming reality

Global food security. ODT Graphic.
Global food security. ODT Graphic.
Some believe securing future food supplies could dwarf climate change as the next most pressing issue facing the world. Agribusiness editor Neal Wallace writes that recent reports of overseas interests seeking to buy large areas of New Zealand farmland is evidence this challenge is real.

In another age, Massey University academic Jacquline Rowarth believes, invading armies would have captured New Zealand's food resources.

The pressure to feed a booming population would have prompted such a violent response. Today, with the world's population predicted to hit eight billion in 2030 and nine billion in 2050, the reaction is more likely to be economic.

Prof Rowarth, Massey University's professor of pastoral agriculture, said food security would dwarf climate change as the world's most pressing issue in the next few decades, and noted New Zealand might have seen the first signs of rich or powerful nations trying to secure future food supplies for their people.

The actions in recent months by parties linked to Dubai and China appear to support her view that food security was a larger issue than has been given credit.

Dubai interests had agreed to fund the purchase of 28 Southland farms through a Maori hapu until the deal collapsed last week, and Chinese interests have reportedly been looking to buy the Crafar family's North Island dairy farm operations.

China has also made large investments in Africa to secure access to resources.

"Food security is the biggest issue we're facing, and people have not got to grips with it yet."

Little was known about the intentions behind the New Zealand purchases, except Dubai interests planned to sign a 99-year supply agreement for meat, milk and fibre from the Southland farms.

However, the Crafar farms offered a large, ready resource of dairy products.

Based at Reporoa, in the Bay of Plenty, the Crafar family has enlarged its original property to 22 farms milking 20,000 cows, carrying 10,000 other stock and with 200 staff, but, weighed down by about $200 million of debt, all have been placed in receivership.

There are plenty of unanswered questions from the deals, such as how would the products be processed, who were the buyers and would it benefit New Zealand?

Unfortunately, answers have been hard to find, with investors remaining inaccessible to media.

The failed Dubai venture appears to have tried to sidestep the Government's controls on foreign ownership, by providing funding for a New Zealand entity, which would technically own the land.

Just who was backing the bid was not determined, but research suggested such investments were made by the Dubai Government, rather than individuals.

There were questions about the deal's authenticity, with the New Zealand agents believing they did not require Overseas Investment Office approval.

However, the office told the Otago Daily Times that, on the information it had, the deal would need its scrutiny.

Agriculture Minister David Carter said it was important not to reject foreign investment outright, but it needed to be controlled.

He said the need for the world to increase food production was at odds with the threat from greenhouse gas emissions, and that was something scientists would have to address.

Mr Carter acknowledged food security along with climate change as two significant global issues.

Prof Rowarth's view that food security was bigger than climate change was supported by a national agrifood conference in Australia last year, hosted by Agrifood Skills Australia.

CSIRO Sustainability Agriculture scientist Peter Carberry told the conference people had started to take for granted the world's ability to meet its food and fibre needs, but he said demand outstripping supply would dwarf the issue of climate change as the requirement for food and fibre would double within a single lifetime.

The conference said world hunger was viewed as a problem of development, distribution and equity of access, and not the ability of the world's resources to meet global demand, and suggested a rethink of attitude was needed.

"Agriculture research aimed at productivity gains was often seen as a matter of private interest, not global need," Dr Carberry said.

At its How to Feed the World 2050 conference held last year, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations concluded that demand for cereals would grow from 2.1 billion tonnes today to three billion tonnes by 2050, but the advent of biofuel could push demand even higher.

Demand could increase even more sharply for other products, with meat production needing to almost double, from about 250 million tonnes to 470 million tonnes.

"The demand for other food products that are more responsive to higher incomes in the developing countries, such as livestock and dairy products, vegetable oils, will grow much faster than that for cereals," according to a conference report.

A Royal Society of New Zealand report this week said pastoral agriculture may have reached its technological limits, and to take the next substantive step to increase production and resist the effects of climate change may require using technology such a genetic modification.

Prof Rowarth said New Zealand could do little to ignore growing food demand from countries such as China, and it was something we might have to get used to.

However, foreign ownership could mean changes to the way New Zealand farms were run, providing a challenge for regulators.

In parts of the world, housed animals were the norm, while other countries had lower animal welfare and environmental standards which she said could influence the way farms were managed.

"If we have external interests coming in, we may have to get used to not quite farming under our expectations."

Based on a measure of calories, New Zealand could feed 18-20 million people, but the quality of our products was also an attraction to overseas investors, she said.

Lincoln University Agribusiness and Economic Research Unit director Caroline Saunders said New Zealand's attraction was its food surpluses relative to its low consumption.

But, she said, foreign ownership was not an issue because it remained in the sovereign ownership of the state.

"In the end, the land is still New Zealand land."

- neal.wallace@odt.co.nz

 

 

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