Two wins needed if Otago is to have shot of making playoffs

Otago forwards Fabian Holland (left) and Oliver Haig, pictured celebrating a try against Waikato last weekend, will hope to be in a similar mood when the NPC playoffs are determined. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Otago grabbed on to a lifeline with its 27-20 win over Waikato in Dunedin on Sunday.

But a spot in the playoffs could still be out of reach.

There are plenty of permutations left in play, and the playoff picture will be a lot clearer at the end of the round.

Realistically, though, Otago will need to win both its remaining games to have a shot at sneaking into the top four of the Odds Pool.

It is in fifth place with 21 points.

It can reach a maximum of 31 points with bonus-point wins over Manawatu in Palmerston North on Sunday and Canterbury in Dunedin next weekend.

The first leg of the double is significantly easier.

Manawatu is stranded at the bottom of the Evens Pool with eight consecutive losses.

Canterbury is at the other end of that pool with seven wins from eight games. It has already booked a home venue for the quarterfinal and will not have a lot riding on its last pool game before the playoffs.

That could play into Otago’s hands.

But even back-to-back bonus points wins might not be enough for Otago.

Hawke’s Bay is the most vulnerable side in the top four of the Odds Pool. It is on 25 points with two games to play.

As it stands, it needs seven points to clear out from Otago and confirm a playoff berth.

The Magpies play Bay of Plenty in Tauranga tomorrow afternoon. Bay of Plenty is in third place in the Odds Pool with 27 points. But it has three games to remaining and needs only five points to move into safe territory.

It will be favoured to beat Northland on Wednesday, so from Otago’s point of view it would be a better result if Bay of Plenty won the Battle of the Bay.

Hawke’s Bay’s final round-robin game is against Tasman. Otago will have a keen eye on the outcome of that game as well. A Tasman win could leave the door open for Otago to slip in.

Wellington (28 points) and Waikato (31) play each other in the capital tomorrow. The winner will secure its place in the quarterfinals, but the loser will still have a chance the following week.

Counties-Manukau (17 points) is a mathematical prospect, but Southland (4) is out of contention.

The other side of the draw is almost as tight.

Canterbury (36) is 11 points ahead and safe.

Auckland (25), North Harbour (22) and Tasman (19) round out the top four in the Evens Pool.

Northland (18) is still within striking range, while Taranaki (15) is in more of a hopeful zone.

Manawatu (3) is done.