Picking a winner for the Heartland Championship is never easy.
It is the proverbial box of chocolates.
No-one really knows who is going to front, with whom and in what sort of form.
With no player contracts and payments in a truly amateur competition, teams can differ greatly every year as players retire, move somewhere else for another job, or go to the big city.
Last year, Wanganui was the top side, winning all its games by healthy margins, and taking out the final 27-12 over a gallant Mid Canterbury side.
But it is another year, and while Wanganui has many of its stars back, coach Guy Lennox is not taking anything for granted.
He said the team had lost three key forwards and a couple of good backs, and would have to be on its game against all the other teams.
"We went through unbeaten last year and that is something we want to continue.
"But it is not going to be easy.
"It is hard to get a gauge on how good other teams are as you don't have that sort of video analysis here like in other competitions," Lennox said.
Lennox does have at his disposal the likes of veteran halfback Denning Tyrell and first five-eighth Leon Mason, while young winger Cameron Crowley will be keen to at least match his 12 tries last year.
An innovation in the competition this year is the player of origin scheme, which allows players who played secondary school rugby in the heartland province before moving away to return to their home union.
Alhambra-Union hooker Ben Pereira is one such player, returning to Wairarapa-Bush, while his club team-mate, Peter Breen, is heading up the road to North Otago.
Mid Canterbury is looking to go one better than last year and has a solid forward pack, with veteran props Jason Rickard and Craig Dunlea ready to go around again.
With loose forward Jason Gill backed up by returning flanker Daniel Bokser - son of coach Trevor Bokser - the side should dominate up front.
Kieran Lindsay, returning for a second year as a loan player, will form an impressive inside back combination with Jack Umaga.
Just down the road, South Canterbury is looking to right a decade of underachievement.
South Canterbury Rugby Football Union rugby manager Cam Kilgour is talking about new expectations and said the standing-down of key forward Tui Tauelangi for two weeks after an incident in a bar showed how serious the union was in imposing higher standards.
"As a union we've underachieved for too long.
"We want to be up among the top four and make a real impact on the competition," Kilgour said.
Across the Southern Alps, West Coast has retained a core of players under coach Anthony Lawry.
One of its two players of origin is former Nelson Bays loose forward Mark de Goldi, who last played for the Coast 12 years ago.
Buller also has a core of experienced players, led by forwards Luke Brownlee and Clark Nelson, who have both played more than 100 games for the union.
Horowhenua-Kapiti will want to improve on last year, when it did not make the top six, eventually losing to Poverty Bay in the Lochore Cup final.
It has lost 16 players from last year but has drafted in loose forward Matenga Baker from Manawatu as its player of origin and named him captain.
Wairarapa-Bush has lost a core of players, and will look to Pereira for inspiration, while King Country should be competitive with coach Brett Coombe in charge.
Poverty Bay has a new coach in Grainger Heikell, and veteran first five-eighth Scott Leighton will continue to drive the team around the paddock.
Horace Lewis is the new player-coach for East Coast but the union believes it has been handicapped through the age of origin players.
Many players leave the East Coast for secondary schooling and so do not qualify.
Thames Valley is looking to its origin player, former schoolboy star Sam Clarke, to help it back from a disappointing performance last year, when it won only one game.
Hanging over the competition are the changes next year with at least two sides headed for the new division one.
Some sides, such as South Canterbury and North Otago, are bullish about making the step up, but most want to hear more about the competition, in particular financial requirements, before making a decision.
A North Otago preview will be in tomorrow's sports section.
