Three wins last season. At least double that and more next season. That is what must be expected out of the Highlanders after coach Glenn Moore named his squad yesterday to contest the 2009 Super 14.
Moore talked of a more balanced squad in naming his side and he does have some things in his favour.
The fact he has 17 players back from last season helps with continuity, and many of those players will be better for having a Super 14 season under their belt.
The side lost plenty of close ones last season, and maybe a bit of experience at the higher level will help finish off games on the right side of the ledger.
Players will be more familiar with those around them and know the game plan.
Also, new players such as Israel Dagg, Jayden Hayward and George Naoupu bring a touch of class to the side.
The backs look skilful, if a bit small, but under the new rules, big is not necessarily better.
Guile and putting people into space is much more of an asset these days than brute strength.
The forwards, being coached by Moore, will not take a backward step and should be competitive.
The side has seven home games and must win at least five or six of those to mount a challenge.
As for Southland being hard done by with just eight representatives in the side, there are two schools of thought.
One: they have been handed an extremely short straw as usual, have been treated badly by big brother, and should secede.
But the second argument does hold water.
Southland won just one more game than Otago in the Air New Zealand Cup, played the five bottom teams in the competition, and was soundly thrashed by Canterbury and Wellington, clearly the two best teams in the competition.
It only made the top four as Bay of Plenty played awfully against them in the quarterfinal, and it threw away a golden chance to win the Ranfurly Shield challenge, when real quality was needed.
There are some lucky players.
Even Moore himself admitted winger Lucky Mulipola was fortunate to make the squad.
Mulipola was very ordinary in the domestic season, but the selectors have put faith in him, saying he has played little rugby in the past 18 months.
Pehi Te Whare must wonder what he has done wrong, while Blair Stewart must feel equally aggrieved.
But that is selection.
Some players enjoy charmed lives while others never win favour.
Stewart does run too much across the field, and is a class below Berquist and Daniel Bowden, the players picked to wear the No 10 jersey.
Otago players Keith Cameron and Aaron Bancroft are also unlucky.
The Highlanders' chances are higher too next season, as the other teams, in New Zealand anyway, are noticeably weaker.
The Blues have a lot of new faces, the Crusaders are without Dan Carter and have lost other experienced players, while the Chiefs have some average artillery.
The Hurricanes look the best prepared New Zealand side.
A possible Highlanders starting XV could be: Dagg, Smith, Leota, Hayward, Vainikolo, Bowden, Cowan, Setephano, Boys, Thomson, Donnelly, Bekhuis, Newland, Hall and Mackintosh.
That side should be competitive, but there are so many uncontrollables in this competition: travel, injuries, poor referring, players going in and out of form, weather, goal-kicking, the South African sides, the draw.
It's how it controls these uncontrollables, if that is possible, that may decide the southern franchise's destiny.
