Anything can happen in age-group sport.
Teams can vary markedly from year to year but organiser Kyle Matthews believes New Zealand has the potential to do well in the division three under-20 world championships which get under way in Dunedin today.
The home side will sit out the opening day, with Bulgaria and China playing in the opening match at 3.30pm and Turkey and the highly-rated Iceland meeting in the late game.
New Zealand's campaign begins tomorrow against one of the so-called weaker sides in Bulgaria. Thursday's match against Iceland shapes as New Zealand's toughest encounter of the week but world rankings can count for very little out on the ice.
"Of the teams which are here, Bulgaria is the bottom-ranked team," Matthews said.
"But, because it is an age-group tournament, obviously the strength of the team will change because you might have had so many kids move on and you've got a whole new bunch. So it is all a bit unknown until we see teams play their first game.
"But Iceland are probably the favourite. They came down from division two last year and will be looking to go back up. New Zealand, at home, would hope to be very competitive and possibly look to win."
As for the standard, Matthews believes the fans will be treated to a good standard of play.
"We are not talking about professional ice hockey players - it is division three, which is the lowest - but there are some real talented players," he said.
"We've got a couple of European countries coming and China is good so there is going to be some good ice hockey.
"Just as an example, Regan Wilson, who is a young man from Dunedin and was at high school a year ago, well, he is playing in the under-20 team and has also been selected for the New Zealand senior team."
Matthews is hopeful the event will attract reasonable crowds but he is also realistic and ticket prices have been set accordingly.
It is just $10 for a tournament pass and $5 for children.
The opening ceremony starts at 2pm.
Schedule
All games at Dunedin Ice Stadium
Division three ice hockey under-20 world championship
Today: Bulgaria v China, 3.30pm; Turkey v Iceland, 7pm
Tomorrow: New Zealand v Bulgaria, 7pm
Thursday: China v Turkey, 3.30pm; Iceland v New Zealand, 7pm
Friday: Bulgaria v Iceland, 7pm
Saturday: Turkey v Bulgaria, 3.30pm; China v New Zealand, 7pm
Sunday: Iceland v China, 3.30pm; New Zealand v Turkey, 7pm
