Pakistan closes in ...
Aargh. The Black Caps got utterly pummelled by South Africa on Wednesday night. They have now slipped to three consecutive losses and suddenly a spot in the semifinals is looking shaky.
Pakistan is looming in the rear-vision mirror. The two teams meet tomorrow night and the result could determine who will progress.
... but a loss might not prove ruinous
The Black Caps still have a healthy net run rate despite a heavy loss to the Proteas. That means they might get away with a close loss to Pakistan as long as they can beat Sri Lanka, and Pakistan do not completely demolish England in their last game and lift their net run rate above the Black Caps’.
According to the boffins, there is still a chance the Black Caps could make it if they lose both games. But, really, that is just the stuff of the imagination of mathematicians.
The best-case scenario would be the Black Caps winning both games and finishing as high as second.
It is all getting a little tense. The fingernails grow shorter by the day while the Black Caps’ injury list continues to mount.
Another one bites the dust
Matt Henry pulled up lame with a hamstring complaint midway through his sixth over on Wednesday night. His participation in the remainder of the tournament hinges on the result of an MRI scan.
All-rounder Jimmy Neesham also sustained a painful blow on the wrist during the match against South Africa but escaped without a fracture.
That is good news, and Lockie Ferguson’s Achilles injury is not as bad as feared. It is hoped he will be available for the game against Pakistan in Bengaluru.
Mark Chapman (calf) and Kane Williamson (thumb) remain on the injury list and will be assessed ahead of the crucial game in Bengaluru.
As it stands, there are just 11 fit players.
Biggest upset but ...
Wasn’t it heartening to see the plucky English side record a gutsy 137-run win over Sri Lanka? Well done, England. You go! Always great to see a minnow punching.
But the defending champions — who are now at risk of failing to qualify for the 2025 Champions Trophy — had their thunder stolen by a stunning effort by the Dutch.
The Netherlands upset South Africa in what was a proper shock.
The Proteas have been in blistering form when batting first. But they look a different side when they have to chase (why did we bowl first?).
Wellington journeyman Logan van Beek ripped through the middle order to help dismiss the competition heavyweights for 207 and contribute to an historic 38-run win.
The win came nearly a year after the Dutch bundled South Africa out of the T20 World Cup.
... the real talking point ...
Afghanistan cemented their status as the tournament Cinderella with a third win in six games.
Having upset both England and Pakistan, they beat Sri Lanka earlier this week by seven wickets to remain in the hunt for the semifinals.
No doubt there was yet more gunfire into the sky above Kabul. There might even be some Taliban-sanctioned dancing in the street if they can grab another win or two.
They play the Netherlands tonight and complete the round-robin with tough games against Australia, who have hit good form following a sluggish start, and India, who look unbeatable at home.
Afghanistan are coached by former England international Jonathan Trott, who had a season in New Zealand playing for the Volts in 2005-06.
... has been the TMO
Sorry. Wrong World Cup.
Last-chance saloon ...
The ‘‘Year of the World Cup’’ has been utter garbage so far.
Fourth for the Silver Ferns. They didn’t even get a spot on the podium.
No-one in the Football Ferns could find the back of the net when they desperately needed a goal.
The Tall Blacks were eliminated in pool play.
And the TMO rewound the game tape back to 1985 and discovered Michael J Fox had fumbled the keys to the DeLorean. A couple of missed kicks at goal did not help the All Blacks either.
That means all that stands between New Zealand and the sporting abyss is the mighty Black Caps.
... for Dad’s army
For the majority of the Black Caps, this is their last shot at World Cup glory.
The 20s are a memory for all but three of the squad. And some of the guys are carrying an awful lot of baggage.
Trent Boult, Tim Southee, Matt Henry and Kane Williamson all started in the 2015 final against Australia, while Tom Latham was part of the squad.
Boult, Henry and Williamson were back four years later for THAT final against England. Latham joined them on the paddock, while Southee was part of the squad but missed selection.
Lockie Ferguson, Mitchell Santner and Jimmy Neesham also took the field that day and are chasing redemption in 2023.
Cricinfo named the 2019 Cricket World Cup final as the greatest ODI ever played , describing it as ‘‘befuddling, incomprehensible, alien’’.
The game was tied but England claimed the title on a boundary countback.
Neesham summed up the despair with some black humour in a post-match tweet which went viral.
‘‘Kids, don’t take up sport. Take up baking or something. Die at 60 really fat and happy.’’
If ever there was a group of players who have earned a little more luck, this is it.
How about that young fulla
Not all of the Black Caps are fossils.
Twenty-three-year-old Rachin Ravindra has made the most of the opportunities he has been provided in the absence of the Williamson.
The left-hander was identified early as a player with huge potential. But it has still been a shock just how much of an impact he has been able to make on the big stage.
He has strung together an impressive sequence of scores in the opening seven games of 123 not out, 51, 9, 32, 75, 116 and 9 for a haul of 415 at an average of 69.16.
To put that into context, only Kane Williamson (578, 2019), Martin Guptill (547, 2015), Scott Styris (499, 2007) and Martin Crowe (456, 1992) have scored more runs at a single World Cup for New Zealand.
Predictions
Spoiler alert: the Black Caps WILL win at least one of their remaining games — probably against Sri Lanka — and slip into the semifinals where they will play competition front-runners India and finish a distant second.
The Rob Walter-coached South Africa will play Australia in the other semifinal and find a way to choke under pressure.
That leaves us with an India-Australia final. And India are the best-balanced team in the tournament and have home advantage.
You might want to watch just in case, though.
• All statistics accurate as of November 2.
