"Significant and powerful", but also "scary" was how Waitaki deputy mayor Jim Hopkins described growth projections for the Waitaki district over the next 25 years when they were presented to the Waitaki District Council yesterday.
Consultants Rationale Ltd had updated a 2008 study to help the council understand how the economic slowdown and other factors might affect the district and help it prepare its long term 2012-22 plan over the next nine months.
They had some unpleasant predictions, such as the district's population (at present 21,217) would peak at 21,523 in 2016 then decline to 20,453 by 2036.
At the same time, the number of households would increase from 10,587 this year to 11,941 by 2036, due to the higher number of smaller families and the prediction there would be more holiday homes in townships like Kakanui, Otematata and Omarama, One of the more disturbing aspects of the report was the change in the age of the district's population. This year, 4717 people were more than 60 years old, but by 2036 this group would swell to 8169.
Cr Hopkins said the report was "one of the most significant and powerful pieces of information we have had since 2008 [the last report]".
It was a wake-up call for the district, provincial New Zealand and the Government. One of the district's scarcest resources - people - would get even scarcer.
"Is this the future we want? And if not, what are we going to do about it?" Cr Hopkins asked.
Cr Kevin Malcolm said he viewed the projections as "a document we can start to grow from". One solution, looking at population and demographic projections, was to import people by developing strong businesses, he said.
Strategy group manager Richard Mabon said the updated projections were an essential basis for planning and crucial to decisions the council needed to make for its long term plan. He identified two key issues - the 25 year projection the district's population would decline and the "demographic time bomb" of an ageing population, which he said was "going to be a very big issue".
Waitaki facts
• Snippets from Waitaki District Council growth projections:Population rising from 21,217 this year to 21,523 in 2016 then falling to 20,453 by 2036.
• Residential dwellings to rise from 10,329 this year to 11,941 in 2036.
• Business properties to grow from 660 this year to 872 by 2036.
• People aged 60 years or over to increase from 4717 this year to 8169 by 2036.
• Major contributors to the economy are business-property services ($184 million/620 jobs) food and beverage manufacturing ($174 million/1350 jobs), agriculture ($123 million/1600 jobs), and mining ($67 million/190 jobs).
• Waitaki's 2010 total GDP $902 million, 8913 full-time jobs.
