For the past 10 years, larval collectors suspended from the old wharf framework at Moeraki have monitored the numbers of lobsters settling in the area in their larval form (puerulus), and Southern Shellfish Ltd fishery scientist Bob Street said the study appeared to show a direct, but delayed, correlation between larval settlement and pot catches in Moeraki.
''Settlement of puerulus was good between 2000 and 2003 in particular, and the flow-on effect was a later significant improvement in catches from 2005-08. On the negative side, the poor settlement between 2004-08 resulted in reduced catches from 2009-12,'' Mr Street said.
He said rock lobster catches declined after 2009, but the study had shown the reason for that could be the migration patterns of lobster larvae, which were greatly affected by ocean currents.
''Apart from the fishing effort on stocks and migrations out of the area, it would appear that yearly variations in the numbers of puerulus larvae settling are a major reason for this.''
However, a ''significant increase'' in larvae settlement at Moeraki in the past three years, pointed to good catches in coming years, ''if history repeats itself'', he said.
He said collectors were also installed at Oamaru wharf last year, and others would also be installed to monitor larval settlement in Bluff, Stewart Island, and the outer Otago Harbour, later this year.
Otago Rock Lobster Industry Association executive officer Simon Gilmour said the crayfish catch on the Otago (Cra7) Rock Lobster Fishery, which included Nugget Point, Otago Peninsula, Shag Point and the Moeraki Peninsula, was this year 10 tonnes short of its 64 tonne quota.
However, assessments indicated the catch could rise to 80 tonnes by 2014.
''Our expectation from the puerulus settlement work and the catch of under-sized lobster ... in the cray pots lifted during the season, is that we are going to have a substantial lift next season, and even larger the season following.
''We expect the increased settlement [of puerulus] from 2009 to have a major impact on the available catch for the next four seasons, right across the Otago fishery.''
Moeraki Fishermen's Association member Allan Anderson said the study was ''very important'' to the township's crayfish industry and had proven to be ''accurate''.
''It helps us as fishermen to plan our fishing strategies well in advance.
''In fact, guys have made some pretty big calls on the information.''
Mr Anderson said although the science behind the monitoring programme was ''correct every time'', the predicted upturn was ''still another year or two away''.
''We will only start seeing signs of it the following year.''
