Now, I wrote that sentence in the full knowledge that in 2023 Rachel Brooking ran up Labour’s third-highest electorate seat majority (7980) and that in neighbouring Taieri Ingrid Leary withstood a considerable swing to National with some room to spare.
But both candidates benefited from the considerable disarray in National’s Dunedin ranks that year: its Dunedin candidate Michael Woodhouse, with some justification, was not his usual energetic self out on the hustings, while in Taieri Matthew French fought a good fight but was behind the eight ball from the start after the party’s initial candidate was quickly and embarrassingly replaced.
Nor is the threat of "friendly" fire. The Greens have always been strong in this part of the world — especially so in the Dunedin/Dunedin North seat with its tertiary campuses — and the party did very well in 2023, running up its party vote by almost 6% in Taieri and by 9% in Dunedin.
Yes, some of that was a reflection of the nationwide swing against Labour, but those are votes the Greens will not be expecting to relinquish in 2026.
The party now has list MPs in each of the Dunedin electorates and co-leader Chloe Swarbrick is here seemingly every other week. The party has the time, skills, local organisation and resources to put into driving that score up, not merely holding what it has.
And if there are indeed extra votes to be gained in Dunedin, they will most likely be one-time Labour voters.
But what is Labour’s biggest concern though, is whether it has done enough to satisfy its core Dunedin vote that it is indeed the party for them.
This disquiet can be most obviously found in the Facebook feed of the Otago Daily Times, specifically in any thread to do with the new Dunedin hospital.
While many commenters have patent cynicism about the direction in which the project is heading — derision which will not in any way be doused by our revelation this week that a considerable portion of the government imposed $1.88 billion budget has already been spent — there is still a worryingly (for Labour) strong resentment of the fact that cuts to the project were first considered under Labour’s watch.
Never mind that Labour rapidly reversed most of them, and that the extent of shelling and cutting that the current government will institute — likely a considerable if that budget is to be achieved — have yet to be revealed. There remains considerable bitterness that Labour sent the hospital careering down what now looks like a very slippery slope.
Ms Brooking and Ms Leary were on the frontlines of the campaign to reverse National’s hospital cuts, both because of their strong personal convictions on this issue, but also because as local MPs they will have almost certainly heard many a grumble on this theme.
Another familiar Facebook complaint is that Labour has taken its Dunedin faithful for granted. That is a hardy perennial: given how hard both current MPs work in their electorates, and the considerable efforts of their immediate predecessors for that matter, that seems unfair.
But it is one which is being aired regularly, and one which Labour will be desperate to stop from gaining any currency.
Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins was in town this week, and he has been a frequent visitor since the election — unlike, say, the leader of New Zealand’s other major political party. Mr Hipkins had party president Jill Day along with him, and she was no doubt taking a keen interest in the state of the party’s grassroots operation.
At the moment Labour is polling better than it could reasonably have expected given the bath it took 18 months ago, but it is very conscious that its lead over National is likely born of resentment of how the coalition is tracking, rather than a groundswell of "Chippie-mania".
The key to switching disquiet with the current government into a clarion call for its replacement starts at the grassroots, so Mr Hipkins targeted students on this trip.
Business also needs to be confident that change will be in its interest and Mr Hipkins also spent several hours touring local firms — a political staple, but one which is now a particular focus.
Labour knows to win it needs to have what it holds, and then build on it. Mr Hipkins is going for growth too, and that is what he was doing in Dunedin last week.
