Smaller UK parties’ fate not irrelevant

From left: Angela Rayner, deputy leader of the Labour Party, Daisy Cooper, deputy leader of the...
From left: Angela Rayner, deputy leader of the Labour Party, Daisy Cooper, deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, Penny Mordaunt, leader of the House of Commons, Carla Denyer, co-leader of the Green Party of England and Wales, host Julie Etchingham, Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, Stephen Flynn, leader of the Scottish National Party, and Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, during the ITV Election Debate 2024. PHOTO: REUTERS
Because of the first-past-the-post system, smaller parties in the UK tend to be of lesser significance than in an MMP system like New Zealand.

At least, that is the theory.

In fact, we have had two hung parliaments in recent times (2010 and 2017), when minority Conservative governments needed support from smaller parties (respectively, Liberal Democrats and Ulster Unionists) to govern.

If the polls are to be believed, Labour are in for a landslide win this time, so there will be no need to look around for deals.

But that doesn’t mean that the fate of the smaller parties is irrelevant.

First off, the parts of the UK that aren’t England.

Northern Ireland (NI) is unique, in that none of the parties who stand there stand anywhere else.

The two biggest parties in 2019 were the Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein, and the polling so far suggests this time it will be close between them again.

The parties could not be further apart on most issues, not least the question of NI’s future in the UK.

But don’t expect Sinn Fein MPs to have a major impact in parliament, as they famously do not take up their seats there (not recognising the sovereignty of the UK Parliament over NI).

In Scotland, polls suggest the Scottish National Party (SNP) are on track to lose seats.

Given that they took a remarkable 43 of the 59 seats in 2019, this is hardly a surprise, but that is not their only problem.

Although this is an election for the UK Parliament, the issues are inevitably getting mixed up with the performance of the devolved SNP government, who to put it mildly — have had their fair share of troubles recently.

One of the biggest challenges for the SNP is how much emphasis to place on a second independence referendum.

As a nationalist party, the SNP clearly cannot just abandon the issue, but with both major UK parties saying they will not allow one, there is a sense even from some nationalist-inclined voters that their attention might be better spent in the things they can hope to change.

The situation is different in Wales, where the devolved government has been Labour-led since establishment in 1999.

Unlike the SNP, Plaid Cymru do not have to defend their record in government, but rather, can attack Labour’s track record in Wales over the past quarter of a century.

The current projections, though, appear only to see Conservative-held seats going to Labour.

On the other hand, 48% of those Welsh adults intending to vote Conservative and 54% of those intending to vote Labour, don’t think that Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer care about Wales.

While it may not lead to Plaid gaining more MPs, this is part of a growing interest in independence.

Traditionally the third party, the Liberal Democrats look to be gaining across this campaign.

The main headline grabber has been the leader, Ed Davey, who has used some media-friendly "stunts" (falling off a paddle board, splashing down a waterslide) to highlight specific policy pledges.

This seems to have brought them more coverage than any traditional campaigning would have.

Davey’s telling of his own story about being a carer for his parents and his son has cut through the bombast about our social care system in a way which has humanised that policy for many voters.

Their popularity as a political force is recovering from their period in coalition with the Conservatives from 2010-2015, which saw them tarnished with the austerity politics of that government.

In Scotland, they stand to gain seats from the SNP.

In England, though, they are not only potentially winning back their traditional heartlands but also more affluent and rural "blue wall" Conservative areas.

The current Tory party’s move to the populist-nationalist right risks alienating more moderate supporters.

Some polls are even suggesting the possibility that the Lib Dems could form the official opposition to the new Labour government.

This may be a long shot, but the fact that this is even being considered is remarkable it has been over a hundred years since anyone outside the "big two" comprised government and official opposition.

As our electoral system means that the Lib Dems popularity among voters rarely translates into seats, so it is for the Green Party of England and Wales.

Since 2010 Caroline Lucas has been their sole sitting MP.

She is retiring and the party is concentrating their campaign in seats that have potential to turn Green.

I find myself in their main target, Bristol Central, where Carla Denyer, has a very real chance to win over the incumbent Labour MP, Thangam Debonaire.

In May’s Bristol City Council results, every ward in Bristol Central returned Green councillors, so the party has reason to be optimistic.

Many will be hoping, however, that first past the post will thwart Reform UK.

Actually a private limited company whose sole shareholder is Nigel Farage, the hard-right populists that grew out of the Brexit Party enjoy an enviable degree of media attention, despite having no sitting MPs.

Farage’s own entry into the contest, having previously suggested he was focused on US politics, has boosted his party and they are close behind several beleaguered Conservatives.

He might, on the eighth attempt, actually win a seat.

By any normal rules, Reform UK should be unelectable.

Candidates openly have links to self-described fascists, one suggested that Britain should have been neutral in dealing with Hitler, and Farage’s recent pro-Putin comments make Jeremy Corbyn look like a defence hawk.

But Farage’s influence has never relied on having any MPs.

Rather, the mere threat of him and his various parties has driven the Conservatives to ever greater extremes, a strategy that has damaged them while only strengthening him.

The question is, on July 5, where will conservatives look for their political future?

• Carol Jess is a former Dunedin South Labour LEC member and Labour NZ Council member, once again resident in the UK.