A tragic cautionary tale

Venezuela starkly demonstrates the truth that the quality of government is paramount.

Once the nation had the highest living standards in South America. Now, it is a basket case of corruption, poverty and crime.

In a country said to have the world’s largest proven oil reserves (passing Saudi Arabia in 2010), more than half its people are going hungry.

Its president, Nicolas Maduro, remains in office only because he steals elections, including the poll at the end of July.

Its people are voting with their feet. An estimated seven million people in a country of about 29 million (2022 estimate) have left over 10 years. Many more are following. Venezuela’s GDP fell 80% in a decade, among the worst such collapses anywhere.

In February this year, a United Nations special rapporteur who visited Venezuela reported that 53% of the population lived in extreme poverty, unable to buy even basic foodstuffs.

The International Monetary Fund reported the inflation rate for 2018 was 929,790%. Crime statistics are no longer kept, but several years ago the murder tally was listed as one every 17 minutes.

Venezuela might be far from New Zealand, and its history and culture are very different. Venezuela is also an extreme example of what can go wrong.

Nonetheless, everywhere should avoid even a step or two along the same paths — notably corruption, extravagant government spending and reckless economic policies.

Bad choices have consequences. Britain’s exit from the EU has made it poorer. New Zealand’s delays in curbing fiscal stimulus after Covid worsened inflation and increased long-term economic damage. New Zealand’s absence of lobbying rules undermines its democracy.

Of course, all this is small beer compared to the Venezuelan calamity.

Democracy, of a sort, came to Venezuela in 1958, relatively early by South American standards. It stuttered with oil booms and busts but with widespread graft and deep and gross inequalities.

Radical Hugo Chavez won the presidency in 1998 and through to 2012. Backed by oil wealth, he splashed out on health, education and housing. He was the darling of the socialist world. Unfortunately, he ran up huge deficits alongside continued mismanagement and corruption. Whenever the price of oil went south, so did the economy.

By 2010, three years before Mr Chavez died, poverty was growing again.

Nicolas Maduro. PHOTO: REUTERS
Nicolas Maduro. PHOTO: REUTERS
His chosen successor, Mr Maduro, appears to have legitimately won the 2013 election. He continued the trend towards autocracy. Democracy is well and truly dead.

All the while, oil production steadily imploded because of a lack of investment and maintenance.

Transparency International’s 2023 corruption perceptions index ranks Venezuela 177th out of 180.

United States sanctions were eased temporarily this year as Mr Maduro promised a free election. That partially came to pass on July 28. By reliable accounts, Mr Maduro was trounced. He has, however, eschewed the chance to depart in peace. He claimed victory and is due to be inaugurated again as president in January.

Yesterday opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez landed in Spain and sought asylum.

There were high hopes that Venezuela was on the cusp of a return to democracy and even a partial recovery from its depths.

Sadly, Mr Maduro and his cronies are digging in as well as cracking down harder on any dissent. Attempts led by South and Central American countries to mediate a departure are failing. The United States has no answers regardless of who wins November’s election.

It does not help that Russia, China and Iran have recognised Mr Maduro as winning the July vote.

Bizarrely, Mr Maduro, on his weekly television show, said: "September smells like Christmas! . . . I am going to decree the beginning of Christmas on Oct 1. Christmas arrived for everyone, in peace, joy and security!".

Perhaps his call is to bolster support from public employees who can receive extra government bonuses at "Christmas".

For most Venezuelans, though, a proper Christmas present of freedom from hunger, oppression and insecurity looks a long, long way away.