Can New Zealand secure a "comprehensive" trade agreement with India at the speed of a fast bowler?
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon boldly hit out before the last election promising an agreement before the end of this government’s term.
Any agreement has been stumped by dairy. While growing verdant grass is a New Zealand comparative advantage, India protects, and always will, its cows, their products and the millions of small farmers.
India is the world’s largest milk producer.
Specialised dairy products worth $60 million were sent to India last year, attracting tariffs and local taxes of 30% to 60%.
Visa rules for Indians are another potential sticking point.
Nevertheless, where there is a will there should be a way.
This week Luxon flew to India, large delegation in tow, and did what he could.
This was Luxon in his element on a favourable wicket - big-picture visions, glad-handing it overseas, full of the jargon and joviality of an enthusiastic businessman on a sales pitch.
He is most unlike former prime minister Helen Clark, who mastered both the overview and the weeds.
Neither does he possess John Key’s popular touches or understanding of the pulse of middle New Zealand.
Jacinda Ardern’s empathy is from another planet as far as Luxon is concerned, and his political inexperience is glaring.
No wonder his popularity slipped and then slid some more when he cannot give straight answers and repeats talking points ad nauseam. No wonder rumblings arise about his future as National’s leader.
Yet, he got through the recent investment summit without mishap. It was received positively, albeit without breakthroughs.
His passage in India has been largely smooth.
He began by being honoured as the chief guest and keynote speaker at a prestigious geopolitics conference.
He had extraordinary access to Narendra Modi, Prime Minister since 2014 and among the most powerful men in the world. They hugged not once but twice. Personal touches help.
Luxon adroitly handled Modi’s comments about a Sikh separatist group in New Zealand.
Just as with China, there will be tightropes to be crossed. Luxon will also face New Zealand criticism after he supported India’s place in the nuclear world.
Remember how tiny New Zealand is. Single constituencies in India’s Parliament can contain up to 2.7 million people.
Why would India, the world’s most populous country with a dynamic economy, even bother with a minnow?
Modi received soft photo opportunities with the leader of a nation well known in India thanks to its cricketers and cricket coaches.
If a "comprehensive" trade agreement is fashioned, India can tick that off, a nice useful single turned to long leg.
A reasonable deal represents a well-struck boundary for New Zealand, desperate to diversify because of dependence on China and the now unreliable United States.
Exports to China are 14 times those to India, and room for growth in complementary trade and services is plentiful.
The jests about an agreement in 90 days or even 60 were a good sign, even if those timetables are unrealistic. The start of formal negotiations was brought forward from a month away to a week.
There might be token agreement on dairy but that is likely to be all.
New Zealand needs to break down other tariffs and build services and connections.
Australia, with copious minerals on offer, achieved a non-dairy deal beginning in 2022, removing tariffs on 90% of its exports.
With progress through the World Trade Organisation long gone and the United States president causing trade conniptions, an Indian agreement would be most welcome.
Luxon deserves credit for a strong start in building a partnership with India. More should come his way if a worthwhile trade agreement can be finalised.
