Close election in the offing

Australian elections, while seldom offering any sort of guide to political fortunes on this side of the Tasman, are always closely watched in New Zealand.

This country’s relationship with our Anzac cousins is important economically and vital strategically, and it is essential that the leaders of each country get on well with each other.

If they do not, otherwise solvable issues such as export access and deportation of criminals can fester and become much harder to resolve than they might otherwise have been.

Being at the same end of the political spectrum is no guarantee of personal affinity: Australia’s Labor PM Bob Hawke and our Labour PM David Lange seemed to heartily loathe each other, but current Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appears to have a relaxed and comfortable relationship with his New Zealand counterpart, National’s Christopher Luxon, who got to know Albanese well prior to becoming prime minister.

The current political situation in Australia appears to be a mirror reversal of that in New Zealand: here a right-wing government with a narrow majority is falling in the polls, whereas there the Labor government’s tenuous grip on power seems to be slipping.

But in both countries polling margins are narrow and within the margin of error, meaning taking any certainty from them would be premature.

That is especially true in Australia, where polls are often volatile and where the complexities of the preferential party system means local strategic voting decisions can run counter to national polling trends. Minor party and independent candidates are also much more viable chances in electorate battles.

But the last New Zealand election and the looming May 3 election will share one thing in common: the cost of living.

It was the dominant issue in New Zealand in 2023 and in Australia both leading candidates have already opened fire on the issue: Albanese has extolled Labor’s plan to keep building the economy, while opposition leader Peter Dutton posed the question "Is our country better off today than three years ago?"

What he left unspoken was the obvious follow-up: would it be any better under a Coalition government?

Dutton, whose manifesto is likely to contain pledges of spending cuts, toughening up on migration and an increased focus on infrastructure, can look to this side of the Tasman and see it can be a winning formula. He also has a populist streak, and his decision to oppose the 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum did much to shore up his initially shaky leadership of the Liberal party.

Although it was two years ago losing The Voice referendum — on which he had staked much personal political capital — remains a sore spot for Albanese. However, he has managed to survive a full term in office without significant internal party turmoil, something few recent prime ministers from any party have been able to boast.

He also has history on his side: during its term Labor won a by-election in a Liberal-held seat for the first time in a century, and it is almost a century since a Federal Australia government failed to secure a second term.

But there, like here, ordinary families faced with affording groceries, medical bills and mortgage repayments are doing it tough, and Labor — despite having returned Australia’s national accounts to surplus — faces questions over its economic management credentials.

Interest rates recently fell in Australia, timely so far as Labor was concerned, but this election, like so many, will almost certainly be decided in the hip pocket.