Donald Trump’s aggressive protectionism could threaten the unity of New Zealand’s coalition government, warns Prof Robert Patman.
The University of Otago international relations specialist says divergent opinions about the United States president’s global tariffs are already causing tension between New Zealand’s governing parties.
That friction might be exacerbated by the coalition parties’ different long-term goals, he says.
Recently, different views held by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, of the National Party, and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, of New Zealand First, were aired publicly when the PM described Trump’s tariffs as unleashing a "trade war" and Peters then criticised such language as "hysterical".
The issue is unlikely to go away, and could in fact get worse, because the smaller coalition parties — NZ First and Act Party — are looking to attract a narrower group of voters than centre-right National.
"Their major concern is to get over 5% [of voters]. Whereas, as a major party, National, backed by the farming community, which depends on free trade, will be expecting their leader to do everything possible to preserve the free trade system," Prof Patman says.
"[Luxon] will do everything possible . . . to make sure New Zealand's national interests are not disadvantaged by this new aggressive protectionism being pursued by Mr Trump."
In today’s episode of Global Insight, Prof Patman also discusses the tough stance Canada, under newly elected PM Mark Carney, is likely to take with Trump; signs of a growing international push against Trump’s war on the global rules-based order; and the role China is likely to play.
