Global Insight: Increased defence spend by NZ on cards

Increased defence spending by New Zealand is on the cards now that Donald Trump is back in the White House, Prof Robert Patman says.

New Zealand is likely to discover it can no longer rely on the United States to the same extent with Trump as president, the international relations specialist says.

This is likely to prompt New Zealand to increase its military spending, which is 1% of GDP, and look more to Australia, he says.

‘‘I think we're facing the prospect that we cannot rely on the Trump administration, which is transactional in its foreign policy,’’ Prof Patman, speaking on Global Insight, says.

‘‘We'll probably face a very tough choice of raising our defence expenditure to ensure that we have some say in decisions that matter to this country.

‘‘I think we will also look to deepen our relationship with Australia in defence terms.’’

Prof Patman expects New Zealand’s government will have difficulty getting public support for any proposal to join Pillar 2 of the AUKUS military alliance while Trump is president.

‘‘It might have been easier with Kamala Harris in the White House.’’

The University of Otago academic thinks New Zealand will adopt a ‘‘two-track approach’’ to deal with the US.

‘‘Looking to establish agreement where it can with the Trump administration, but having to make it quite clear it will defend its own national interests and if necessary make some tough decisions to do so.’’

On this episode of Global Insight, Prof Patman also talks about global reactions to Trump’s foreign affairs approach; the difference between the first Trump presidency and Trump 2.0; and, the likelihood Trump’s threats to impose sanctions and tariffs will succeed.