Prime Minister-in waiting Christopher Luxon says he is confident National and Act can govern alone and they now have a mandate to take the country forward.
“Thank you so much and thank you New Zealand ... you have reached for hope and you have voted for change,” the National leader told supporters, prompting loud cheers.
“I am immensely proud to say that on the numbers tonight, National will be able to lead the next government,” he said
“My pledge to you is that our government will deliver for every New Zealander.”
National now had a mandate to take the country forward, Luxon said.
The latest vote count projects that National would win 50 seats, Labour 34, the Greens 13, Act 12, NZ First 8 and Te Pāti Māori with four seats.
So far just over 92% of the votes have now been counted.
This result would transition Luxon, 53, from a first-term MP into running the country - National and Act would have a combined 62 seats in Parliament. That’s potentially enough to govern without needing support from NZ First.
However National will be closely watching other results tonight, with the prospect of an overhang in Parliament - meaning there could be more than 120 MPs in total. That could mean 62 seats might not be enough - and the prospect of Luxon having to turn to NZ First.
Special votes could also impact on Parliament’s final shape, with a final result scheduled to be declared on November 3.
There will also be a by-election held in Port Waikato on November 25 – a seat National currently holds – due to the death of Act candidate Neil Christensen during the campaign.
Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins earlier conceded the election.
“As it stands Labour is not in a position to form a government,” he told supporters.
As he spoke to supporters he fought tears and his voice cracked as he thanked his family "for everything you have done for me" while acknowledging his party would be in opposition.
"The Labour Party will take some time to reflect and to refresh. We now have an important role in Opposition, to hold the Government to account, and to fight for those who stand to lose from their proposed cuts," Hipkins said.
"I can promise we will keep fighting for working people because that is our history and our future."
Sir John Key, arriving at a raucous National campaign party in Auckland, said he believed Luxon would make a “tremendous’ Prime Minister.
Earlier in the night David Seymour said he spoke to Mr Luxon.
"We can work together well," says Seymour, warning that the nation needs to still wait for the special votes for clarity on whether Act and National will be able to form a Government without any help from NZ First.
Seymour says that people are very angry at the Labour Government due to the management of Covid-19.
"New Zealanders have rejected the legacy of Jacinda Ardern."
Seymour wouldn't be drawn on what portfolio he would want in a Government, turning the discussion to his campaign promises of turning the economy around and a renewed focus on the Treaty of Waitangi.
The possibility of a National and Act forming a Government without NZ First is on a knife edge.
'Ultimate political phoenix': NZ First makes it back
“Winston Peters is the ultimate political phoenix,” the NZ First leader’s deputy Shane Jones said last night as the victory party danced on in the Bay of Islands.
It was a triumphant Peters who emerged to thank supporters.
“We have done the impossible,” he told a crowd of 150 at the Duke of Marlborough on Russell’s waterfront.And it seems he might yet to go further.
NZ First’s six per cent of the vote is enough to get back to Parliament but not quite enough to force the National Party into a deal.But it might yet be, and that isn’t lost on Peters.
Te Pati Maori’s success and the overhang created in Parliament means National might - just might - need the eight MPs that NZ First is taking back to Parliament.
Peters arrived to speak at 9.30pm - as late as he could delay thanking supporters before many left on the 10pm ferry to Paihia across the harbour.
He delayed and delayed as cameras clustered at the entrance to the Duke where supporters and new MPs partied inside. And then, in his contrarian fashion, he dodged the media scrum by slipping in through a side door.
Peters took to the stage, danced a jig as the music played and then launched into a short speech.
In it, Peters appeared to offer a carrot and a stick to the National Party.
After thanking supporters, he showed the spectre of NZ First in opposition: “We’ve always known that in a great democracy that people who are elected and the officials must be held to account.”
He said NZ First would do this - it would speak out and “raise the roof when other people won’t raise a finger”.
But then he showed the constructive NZ First - better in the fold than out. He warned of tough times and parlous government finances.
“Don’t forget all the promises made. There is a moment of reality seriously that is seriously needed. If we don’t to that, we go on a slide. If we can help, we will.”
He later smiled, and said he was simply being “patriotic”.
NZ First was launched in 1993 by Peters after he left the National Party. It has formed or supported governments with National and Labour, most recently in 2017 when it lent its 7.2 per cent to support Labour into power and make Jacinda Ardern prime minister.
Then in 2020 it crashed out of Parliament with 2.6% of the vote - not the first time it had failed to reach the 5 per cent threshold.
But its exit was bundled with speculation over whether it was Peters’ last hurrah. He had entered Parliament first in 1978 and was approaching his 80s.
There was never a challenge or any question NZ First would contest this year’s election. Peters’ path to power started with town hall meetings in March of which he has held dozens across the country. He picked up support from all the old places - and courted a new constituency in the conspiracy-courting community that has developed since Covid-19.
Peters told the crowd how “they laughed” when he had spoken of NZ First making a comeback.“They are not laughing now,” he said. And already he was looking ahead: “Hang on, there’s an election in 2026 and we’re getting ready for it.”
After speaking, Peters hosted a brief press conference. He took two questions and then asked for others. Without waiting to hear a response, he disappeared back through the same door from which he had suddenly emerged five minutes earlier.
After Peters left, Shane Jones said it was hard to express the enormous amount of work it took across the party to “claw our way back”.And, like Peters, he wasn’t ready to call the election with National and Act running the country. Yes, he acknowledged, there would be an overhang because of the success enjoyed by Te Pati Maori. And that meant Act’s addition to National’s MPs might not be enough.
“What a rich irony that the overhang of The Maori Party may increase the value of New Zealand First.”
Expert commentator Shane Te Pou - a former Labour candidate and campaign manager - said early in the night Hipkins may have to resign.
The early results were greeted with cheering at the National Party’s campaign HQ.
"I don't want to look at it," some Labour supporters told the New Zealand Herald as the early results came in. They asked where the bar was and headed straight there.
Fantastic night - Woodhouse
Defeated Dunedin candidate Michael Woodhouse, who quit his parties list in acrimonious circumstances early in the campaign, was in a jubilant mood.
"Any regret? Absolutely none. I'm delighted for the party and looking forward to the future."
Mr Woodhouse said National's result was testimony to a lot of hard work behind the scenes.
"We are having a fantastic night and leading in seats where maybe only the candidate thought that they had a chance."
Ayesha Verrall told the Herald she was thinking about her colleagues around the country who might not make it back to Parliament.
"I guess we'll see where we land in an hour or so.
"I'm hoping for more of my colleagues to make it through, and seeing that that might not be the case in some parts of the country, that's pretty sad."
She said she was particularly concerned about what might happen under a National-led government in the health system "and the early stage it's in and it's recovery from Covid".
Asked what should have happened in the campaign, she said: "I'm sure there will be a lot of time for going into that."
Labour would have to think about what lay underneath the mood for change, she said.
"Was it Covid, was it the cost of living? One's fortunes can rise and fall quickly in politics," she said, noting the drastic change from three years ago.
"How different is our situation from one the National Party was in not that long ago? That would be the question I'd reflect on in terms of the next term, and what we do next."
Asked if she thought Chris Hipkins should resign, she said: "We'll see what he says [when he gets here]."
