Federated Farmers North Otago president Otto Dogterom said North Otago farmers were already struggling with very dry ground conditions, and many had sold off stock and bought extra winter feed to help tide them over the winter period.
The conditions were stretching farmers’ finances, he said.
"It’s not really good news — a lot of farmers are definitely in quite a bit of pain."
Niwa National Climate Centre forecasting principal scientist Chris Brandolino said temperatures on the Canterbury plains and in East Otago were about equally likely to be above average or near average, and rainfall totals were about equally likely to be near normal or below normal over the next three months.
It meant soil moisture levels and river flows were also most likely to be below normal, he said.
"Westerly-quarter winds will likely cause spells of milder temperatures.
"June has an elevated chance of being drier than normal.
"Soil moisture and river flow deficits will be slow to be alleviated."
Temperatures on the West Coast, the Southern Alps and foothills, inland Otago and Southland were also about equally likely to be above average or near average, but rainfall totals were about equally likely to be near normal or above normal.
"The region may be exposed to strong fronts and lows on occasion, particularly in July and/or August," he said.
Soil moisture levels were most likely to be near normal, while river flows were about equally likely to be near normal or above normal.
Mr Brandolino said El Nino weather conditions had been active since September 2023, bringing stronger and more frequent winds from the west.
But it had now ended and given way to ENSO neutral conditions, which were expected to last through winter.
He said winter air pressure was expected to be higher than normal near the North Island, and lower than normal in the south of the country.
"This will most likely come with more westerly winds than normal.
"Southerly winds are expected to occur less frequently in winter than they did during autumn, which will have an influence on temperature patterns."
He expected there to be a spell of warmer than average temperatures during the first half of June, followed by a return to more typical conditions in the second half of the month.
"Cold snaps, while expected occasionally through the season, will likely be brief.
"Because of the prevalence of high pressure, rainfall events will likely occur irregularly."
Mr Brandolino said Niwa had now issued a La Nina watch because there was a 60%-70% chance of the weather condition developing during spring.
Unfortunately for farmers, La Nina weather conditions usually bring northeasterly winds and reduced rainfall to the lower and western South Island.
