City's future direction at stake in election

The race for Dunedin's mayoralty is shaping up as a referendum on almost a decade of development in the city.

Since 2010, when Dave Cull was sworn in for the first of three terms as mayor, the Dunedin City Council has been charting a course towards a greener, more sustainable future, while seeking to fix the mistakes of the past.

It started badly, as a shortfall in cash from council companies - fuelled by the decision to build Forsyth Barr Stadium - prompted an overhaul and austerity, as council spending, rates and debt levels were cut.

But beyond the Civic Centre, the council has, over nine years, increasingly turned its attention to a goal of making Dunedin more liveable, as well as to mitigate and prepare for climate change.

Nowhere has that been more obvious than in the spread of cycleways across the city - an initiative praised by supporters and scorned by critics, as car parks made way for bollards and white marking.

There have been calamities along the way - from the South Dunedin flood in 2015 to the eye-watering bill fix Aurora's neglected network - while the unfamiliar realities of a growing city began to squeeze parking and constrict traffic flows.

But the council has doubled down - increasing investment, rates and debt limits again to meet those challenges, while insisting public transport, rather than more car parks, is the future.

And, earlier this year, Dunedin joined other centres around the world in declaring a climate emergency and shifted its carbon net-zero goal from 2050 to 2030 - a move predicted to cost the city millions.

But then, in May, Mr Cull (69) announced he would not seek a fourth term as mayor, opening the door for a successor to take up the office after polling day on October 12.

And there is no shortage of contenders lining up to replace him - 14 of them, to be exact.

Leading the charge are six incumbent city councillors - Crs Jim O'Malley, Christine Garey, Aaron Hawkins, Lee Vandervis, Andrew Whiley and Rachel Elder.

Other contenders from outside council have also thrown their hats in the ring - Scout Barbour-Evans, Bob Barlin, Finn Campbell, Carmen Houlahan, Mandy Mayhem-Bullock, Malcolm Moncrief-Spittle, Jules Radich and Richard Seager.

While whoever emerges victorious on October 12 will carry only one vote, they will wield influence in other ways, too.

That included the right to deploy the mayor's casting vote - used to break voting deadlocks, if needed - but also proposing candidates for key committee roles, helping shape meeting agendas, building relationships with Ngai Tahu and leading the development of budgets.

Which all adds up to one thing - October's local body elections matter.

Cr Hawkins, a Green Party candidate, was in no doubt what was at stake.

``Everything,'' he told the Otago Daily Times this week.

``I think it's taken us a long time to build up the political support to move the city in the direction to do the kind of things we need to do.

``But that could go backwards very quickly under different political leadership.''

Cr Hawkins - a two-term councillor seeking the mayoralty for the third time - said this year's campaign included candidates either ``broadly supportive'' or completely opposed to the city's direction.

``There doesn't seem to be a lot of middle ground there.''

He wanted to maintain the course, while accelerating the pace of change on climate change, housing and transport, ``at a time when we most urgently need to''.

But one figure standing in the way - perhaps more than any other - is Cr Vandervis, a persistent critic of wasteful council spending across many initiatives in recent years.

He has argued repeatedly against cycleway spending and the loss of parking in the central city, while also railing against much of the council's ``bureaucratic'' approach to climate change measures.

The solution, in South Dunedin in particular, is not a climate emergency - it is bigger pipes, he has argued.

Cr Vandervisdeclined to comment for this story.

Instead, he has taken to social media to attack the ODT and promote his own populist campaign, cheered on by his most vocal supporters.

For Cr Garey - seeking to become only the second woman to be elected Dunedin mayor - Cr Vandervis' approach, and the ``toxicity'' of some of his supporters, had clear similarities to the rise of other populist figures abroad.

In the United States, the public had been ``blindsided'' by Donald Trump, but his election had heralded the roll-back of a progressive agenda.

The same thing could happen in Dunedin, she warned.

``I see a parallel. I think it's really concerning.

``What I would say to voters is think carefully before you vote ... because there's a lot at stake for our city.''

Cr O'Malley was less concerned, saying the mayoralty was ``not a dictatorship'' and the single transferable vote (STV) system would give a ``very representative'' council.

``I don't think our voter base is upset as that, at the moment.''

Nevertheless, a council seeking to roll back recent changes would be a ``retrograde step'', and the prospect of a Vandervis mayoralty risked creating a ``dysfunctional'' council, he believed.

``You still have to bring the whole council along if you're the mayor. You're only the rudder ... you don't control the wind and you don't control the sails.

``He could be a mayor where he would lose 14-1 votes from the mayoral seat.''

Cr O'Malley believed the city was at a ``watershed'' moment, while Cr Whiley was more critical, saying Mr Cull had ``managed the city - he didn't lead it''.

``We have to spend a lot more time working with each other, rather than pushing our own agendas, and I've seen a lot of agendas being pushed this term.

``I think some of the decisions we've made at council, like calling a climate emergency, have been out to lunch.''

Cr Elder said the mayoral campaign was important because, whoever won, ``their style of leadership is critical when it comes to creating a culture of respect, collaboration and enabling diverse views and healthy and respectful debate''.

The candidates from outside council were also setting out widely divergent agendas, from the need to reinstate groynes at Ocean Beach to protect South Dunedin, proposed by Mr Radich, to an attack on climate change ``alarmism'' outlined by Mr Moncrief-Spittle.

Others wanted to see a continued emphasis on climate change, South Dunedin, parking and public transport.

Prof Janine Hayward, of the University of Otago department of politics, expected the ``open contest'' would help boost interest in local democracy and, hopefully, voter turnout.

``People's preferences will be well reflected in who gets elected ... so if there has been a shift in mood in the public, that is going to be reflected in the election,'' she said.

However, the STV system also required a successful mayoral candidate to earn 50% support, and the redistribution of voter preferences avoided the risk of a split vote opening the door to an unwanted candidate.

``You can't just rely on the vocal base that you know likes you best ... you really do need to be aiming for broad support,'' she said.