University of Otago atmospheric physicist and researcher Associate Prof Annika Seppala said the present satellite instruments measuring atmospheric ozone were more than 20 years old and were due to lose orbit and splash down within the next year.
"So the entire global atmospheric science community is in a bit of a crisis at the moment, because we know that we’re going to have a data gap in ozone information.
"The reason we are extremely worried about this gap is that it is used for lots of different purposes, including making our seasonal weather predictions better.
"We’re just not going to have that information going forward."
Earth Sciences New Zealand (formerly Niwa) atmospheric scientist Dr Richard Querel agreed the loss of data would have significant repercussions.
"Data about things like the Antarctic ozone hole ... it’s the main driver of the climate that happens in the southern hemisphere and drives where winds are going to be, and how far north or south these winds will be, and then if there’s going to be droughts, or if there’s going to be these atmospheric river events."
"The winds that powered those wildfires were blowing in those specific directions to make the wildfires worse, because of the ozone hole.
"If we don’t have information on the ozone hole, we’re not going to be able to predict winds like those correctly.
"And also, given climate change is making our weather more extreme and more frequent, an ozone satellite will be important to help forecasters increase the accuracy of all those predictions."
She was now working feverishly with the physics team at the University of Otago to develop a replacement, but it would not be ready for another 10 years, she said.
They were using new technology to develop a miniaturised photonic radiometer for the detection of atmospheric ozone over Antarctica.
Prof Seppala said miniaturisation of the detector would make it less expensive to build and put into orbit.
It was hoped a prototype device could be launched within the next five years, via a high-altitude balloon, from Antarctica.
Our weather reporting might not be quite as accurate over the next 10 years.
"That is a worry, and that’s something that hasn’t really been assessed very carefully on what the implications will be.
"So we don’t know what the quality of weather reports or seasonal-scale weather will be over the next decade."
