The National Party has plummeted to 30% in the first public poll since the Covid-19 crisis took hold.
The Newshub Reid Research poll has National at 30.6 - while Labour has rocketed up to 56.5% under Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's leadership through the Covid-19 crisis.
As preferred PM, Ardern was at 59.5% - up 20.8 points on the last poll and the highest any Prime Minister has scored in the Reid Research poll's history.
The Green Party is on 5.5%, and NZ First has dropped to 2.7% - well below the threshold to return to Parliament.
Those results would give Labour 72 seats in Parliament, National 39, and Act 2. The Greens would get seven seats.
The National Party's result is down almost 13 points from the last poll in February, when it was at 43%.
On this poll's results, its caucus would be decimated – it would lose 16 MPs. That would mean all of its current 15 List MPs were gone and if it held all of its electorates, it would have no list MPs.
Unless there is a change in fortune, that is bad news for the likes of Paula Bennett, who is standing list-only in the next election, and finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith who is the Epsom candidate but cedes that seat to Act's David Seymour.
National leader Simon Bridges' popularity has crashed to 4.5% - down by 6.1 percentage points - but still ahead of Judith Collins who is on 3.1%.
Bridges was down to 4.5% - a six-point drop for him.
The poll of 1000 people was conducted from May 8-16. It has a margin of error of 3.1%.
Ardern told Newshub: "It speaks to the work we've jointly done. I just happen to have had the humble and privileged opportunity to be leading at this time."
She was taking nothing for granted despite the poll, she said.
"The fact that I'm making no assumptions about what will be the end outcome ... on election day should be a nod to that."
Bridges told Newstalk ZB the poll results were not surprising, given governments the world over had seen a boost in support following Covid-19.
"But that wasn't an election campaign which will be about our economic future. National has the team and the track record for jobs and growth and that will put us in a much stronger position as we head towards the election."
Bridges told Newshub he "absolutely" expected to stay on to fight the election, saying the polls bounced around at such times.
He said it had been impossible to get media coverage during the past months: "We've seen lockdown wall-to-wall coverage of the Government."
It is a disastrous result for Bridges and the party, just four months ahead of September's general election, and will cause ructions within the caucus, especially among list MPs whose places are in danger.
Bridges has struggled to get traction in the preferred Prime Minister stakes since taking over in early 2018, and faced a public backlash in the earlier days of the Covid-19 lockdowns after criticising elements of the Government's response.
Most of the Reid Research poll was conducted prior to last week's Budget, and takes into account public sentiment in the final days of the level three lockdown.
Ardern's decision to put the country into lockdown also got massive public support - almost 92% of voters said it was the right call, including 84% of National Party supporters. The lockdown decision was supported by National at the time, although Bridges subsequently urged for a swifter lifting of the level 3 restrictions.
The poll result is a significant change in fortunes for the National Party, which was sitting at 43.3% in the most recent Reid Research poll in February this year – slightly ahead of Labour.
National was also sitting pretty in a February One News Colmar Brunton poll, on 46% – a poll on which it could have taken the Government benches with Act.
However, Bridges had struggled to get airtime throughout the crisis, while Ardern's leadership was further cemented and lauded both domestically and internationally.
The National Party has rebounded from bad polls in the past - including after the dramatic accusations and expulsion of MP Jami Lee Ross, and after the Christchurch mosque attacks when Ardern's popularity soared over her handling of that disaster.
However, those results were not as resounding as these - nor as close to an election.
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Comments
Not good, this might spur National on to pick a leader who can give them a chance of forming the next government.
Let's wait for another poll, later this year.
It's then we'll find out how happy New Zealanders are with this government's decision to lock down the economy. Especially those thousands of Kiwi's who have lost their jobs. They will be wondering if it was all worth it!
What National required during the crisis was a an honest and sensible leader willing to put the national interest above party political stances to ensure an eventual vindication of their actions by the electorate. Unfortunately for National, Simon Bridges is not that leader.
It isn't just because Bridges has been finding it hard to get media attention. There is also the things that he has said when he had the media's attention.
People can see that had Bridges been the PM he would have been just another Donald Trump and New Zealand would be in the same situation the USA is in now. People don't like being sacrificed on the altar of big business, you certainly don't want your sacrificial offerings actually surviving long enough to vote. The Nationals are lucky to have 30% support, it's more than they deserve.