World cup GDP boost expected

Nick Tuffley
Nick Tuffley
The effects of hosting the Rugby World Cup last year are expected to feature in a substantial way in data being released this week by Statistics New Zealand.

On Wednesday, the current account deficit is forecast to narrow slightly to 4% of GDP for the three months ended December as a result of an improvement in the goods balance and a smaller services deficit.

GDP (gross domestic product) data out on Thursday is expected to show quarterly growth of 0.6%, partly reflecting the continued effects of the world cup.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the broad nature of the improvement in economic activity suggested the New Zealand recovery was gaining a firmer footing.

The 0.6% December growth followed on from the stronger than expected growth of 0.8% seen in the September quarter.

Construction activity was finally showing tentative signs of a recovery from the weakness seen over much of 2011. The Rugby World Cup appeared to have provided a further boost to economic activity, particularly to retail spending, he said.

"Beyond 2011, we expect the New Zealand economy will continue to recover gradually. Business confidence is recovering in light of the progress made offshore in regards to the European debt crisis."

Recent building consents issuance pointed to some improvement in residential building activity ahead, although the issuance remained at low levels, Mr Tuffley said.

Another encouraging development had been the rebound in confidence among manufacturers so far this year.

The Reserve Bank expressed greater confidence in the recovery of the New Zealand economy during the recent monetary policy statement briefing, he said.

However, the pace of underlying growth remained gradual.

Mr Tuffley still expected the Reserve Bank to leave the official cash rate on hold at 2.5% until December. The pace of further cash-rate increases was likely to be gradual.

Finance Minister Bill English has recently focused on New Zealand's indebtedness to overseas lenders and he may be encouraged by the December-quarter current account data that should feature an improved goods balance as stronger export volumes and a weaker New Zealand dollar more than offset softer world commodity prices.

Westpac senior economist Anne Boniface said dairy exports were likely to be a particular standout, despite weaker global milk prices, following a stellar production season for New Zealand dairy farmers.

"Although the goods balance remains firmly in positive territory for now, tougher conditions for exporters and softer commodity prices are likely to see this come under pressure in 2012."

The impact of hosting the world cup could be evident in New Zealand's external accounts over both the September and December quarters, she said.

The event drove a sharp jump in the number of overseas visitors entering the country, providing a boost to the tourism sector which was reflected in an increase in exports of services.

 

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