GDP up 1.1% in surprise quarterly result

Christina Leung
Christina Leung
Manufacturing underpinned a surprise 1.1% quarterly increase in gross domestic product data, more than doubling predictions by some analysts and the Reserve Bank.

The Reserve Bank and market analysts had picked 0.4% growth apiece, while the ASB was at 0.6% and Westpac at 0.7% - compared with the actual 1.1% rise.

While the surprise 1.1% economic growth was welcomed, analysts also responded with cautions in their commentaries on the Statistics New Zealand data.

ASB economist Christina Leung said the key surprises were in the stronger services activity in the public sectors and professional services industry and wholesale trade activity was also stronger than earlier data suggested.

"Overall, the stronger activity in these areas points to domestic demand picking up in the New Zealand economy.

"Manufacturing activity increased more than we expected, largely reflecting stronger food manufacturing," she said in a statement yesterday.

However, Ms Leung cautioned "some payback" would come in the second-quarter GDP data as the preceding quarter's "pace is unsustainable and a degree of stock-building went on".

She said New Zealand's growth outlook remained "very murky" with Europe a chronic source of risk, and even without that risk, we would view New Zealand's recovery as only a gradual one.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said the markets responded in kind to the surprise data, as the New Zealand dollar leapt half a cent higher against the US to beyond US80c and two-year swap rates rose 12 basis points.

"Adding to the surprise, there has also been another set of revisions to history. Growth is now seen to have been faster over the past year, pushing annual average growth up to 1.7%," Mr Stephens said.

The surprise "notably wasn't in the construction sector", as construction GDP contracted by 0.1% against Westpac's expectation for a 1% increase.

"In addition, Statistics New Zealand noted that quake-related construction didn't have a significant impact on the outcome," he said.

Council of Trade Unions economist Bill Rosenberg cautioned the surprise 1.1% result was no reason for complacency, as it would have been more welcome if it resulted in falling unemployment and more money in the hands of the people who need it most.

"Instead, unemployment rose to 6.7% in the quarter and household expenditure rose by only 0.1%. It is good to see continuing strength in food manufacturing, but other forms of manufacturing are still being hurt by the high exchange rate," Mr Rosenberg said in a statement.

Statistics New Zealand data on the current account deficit was released on Wednesday.

Shrinking exports and rising imports widened the current account deficit for the quarter to March, pushing the full-year gap between what the country spends and what it earns from international trade and investment to its widest for nearly three years, The New Zealand Herald reported.

The quarter's seasonally adjusted deficit was $2.8 billion, $600 million larger than in the December 2011 quarter.

For the year ended March, the deficit widened to $9.7 billion, equivalent to 4.8% of GDP, up from 4.2% in December and the largest it had been since June 2009, both in dollar terms and relative to the size of the economy.


GDP
• Up 1.1% quarter to March; up 1.7% year to March.
• Manufacturing up 1.8%.
• Business services up 2%.
• Agriculture up 2.3%.
• Construction down 0.1%.
SOURCE: Statistics New Zealand


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