Global spot gold prices hit $US1302 ($NZ1731) in January, but since mid-February had been trading at or well below $US1220, further depressing profit margins amid rising costs.
Oceana this month formally extended the mine life of its underground Frasers mine at Macraes in East Otago by a year to 2017, and has said the Macraes open pit operation could be producing for another two to three years.
While there have been positives for the sector overall from lower fuel costs and an Australian dollar weak against its US counterpart, that was likely to be countered by generally lower ore extraction for many companies, leading to higher production costs per ounce overall, Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said.
''We expect the quarter to March reporting season to generally be weak; the quarter-on-quarter production declines leading to higher gold production costs,'' he said.
However, Oceana Gold was rated alongside Alacer Gold, Evolution Mining and Independence Group as the four companies, of a total 14, most likely to deliver on quarterly performance.
''Oceana should beat expectations if the solid performance it delivered in December continues into the March quarter,'' Mr McIntyre said.
He said the lower New Zealand dollar and fuel prices were assisting a reduction in costs, which allowed for a profit margin expansion.
Mr McIntyre expects Oceana to produce 83,000 ounces of gold, from combined New Zealand and Philippine operations for the quarter, at a production cash cost of $US514.
Oceana guidance for its calendar 2015 remained at 295,000 to 335,000 ounces and 21,000 to 23,000 tonnes of copper, with an all-in sustaining cost per ounce of gold at $US770-$US840. It reports on April 29.
Mr McIntyre was expecting Oceana to hit the upper end of its guidance, at 332,000 oz gold and 22,800 tonnes of copper, for 2015.
''We note the majority of [gold] production in New Zealand is hedged at favourable New Zealand dollar gold prices,'' he said.
Based on ''buy'' recommendations, Oceana and Evolution are also in a group of five ''top picks'', including Sandfire Resources, Sirius Resources and Orocobre. Mr McIntyre said companies likely to disappoint in quarterly results would be Regis Resources and OZ Minerals.
Regis had been hit by wet weather and lower gold grades, with calendar production already downgraded to 309,000 ounces, while OZ Minerals was under strategic review and faces possible operational changes for its gold and copper production.
