The Reserve Bank is not expected to cut the official cash rate from 2.5% this week and it appears Governor Graeme Wheeler is unlikely even to signal an imminent cut.
New Zealand's consumer price inflation (CPI) ended 2015 at just 0.1%, the lowest rate in 16 years and below the Reserve Bank's forecasts.
Continuing oil price falls threatened to tip New Zealand into outright deflation in annual terms this year.
With inflation close to zero and well below target, the possibility of another rate cut has arisen.
HSBC Australia New Zealand chief economist Paul Bloxham said he did not expect a cut at the Reserve Bank's January meeting on Thursday.
The bank itself seemed to adopt a ''fairly cautious'' attitude during the second half of last year with a lot of rhetoric about central banks needing to move gradually in a world of heightened uncertainty.
After delivering 1% of cuts in 2015, the last of which arrived in December, the Reserve Bank would want to pause and judge the effects, he said.
Also, the New Zealand economy did not appear to be at risk of a near-term slowdown in growth, as happened in the first half of 2015, prompting last year's rate cuts.
Instead, the timely activity readings were at encouraging levels.
Domestic demand remained solid and the tourism sector, which was about 10% of the economy, was booming.
House price inflation was also raising financial stability risks and the Reserve Bank might need some time to assess the impact of recent macro-prudential tightening, Mr Bloxham said.
"We do expect two more 0.25% cuts in 2016, starting in the second quarter, although a cut at the March meeting is an increasing possibility. Even ignoring the oil price impact, we believe inflation pressures will remain too low for the Reserve Bank to credibly project a return to 2% average inflation over the medium term, forcing it to act,'' he said.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said the Reserve Bank could send a strong signal along the lines it was unlikely inflation would return near the target mid-point without further policy easing and the bank would reassess in March whether further easing was appropriate.
Such a signal would have markets and forecasters zeroing in on the March or April OCR windows as likely timing for policy action.
"We expect it will take a little longer for the Reserve Bank's stance to change significantly. At the least, we expect the Reserve Bank to now show more of an easing bias than was clear in its staunch-sounding December Monetary Policy Statement.''
The central bank might express more uncertainty about the lack of inflationary impact on the lower dollar, note oil prices would restrain headline inflation over the year and should note global risks had increased, he said.
The ASB expected two looming consequences of an even more subdued inflation environment.
Inflation expectations might remain subdued for longer.
With that came the added risk monetary policy was less effective in pushing inflation back up.
Second, inflation had been extremely low for a considerable time.
By ASB estimates, annual inflation would spend seven quarters, or nearly two years, below the 1% floor of the target band, Mr Tuffley said.
A three-year moving average of inflation would persist below 1%.
February's labour market data, the first quarter CPI, housing market developments, the New Zealand dollar, global growth and global inflation developments would play key roles in determining when the Reserve Bank next cut the OCR, he said.
