Market reaction to quake 'overdone'

Weaker economic growth in Japan is expected to have some impact on the global economy, although the country is a smaller share of world GDP than in the past and is now much more domestically focused.

The Sendai area, which felt the brunt of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, makes up about 10% of the Japanese economy with car-makers prominent in the region.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said in a global macro context, the impact of the quake would be minimal.

"There will be some impacts to tourism, trade and on some commodity sectors although the market reaction seems overdone in our view - assuming no further problems arise such as an escalation of the nuclear situation."

It was possible that part of the correction in markets related to an accumulation of other global risks such as China's growth slowing and sovereign debt issues in other parts of the world, he said.

Despite being one of the wealthiest nations in Asia and having a high weighting in most indices that covered the region, the Japanese economy had struggled for several years against deflation, low growth and equity markets that had never recovered from the decline that started in 1989.

Before the March 11 quake, the expectation for 2011 economic growth from Japan was 0.1%.

The economy was expected to contract in the first quarter with a mid-year export-led rebound leading to a flat year of zero growth, Mr Timms said.

The Kobe quake in January 1995 had been used as a benchmark for how the Japanese economy and market might fare in the aftermath of the latest quake.

In 1995, 7000 people died and the reconstruction spend was about $US100 billion ($NZ138 billion).

The Nikkei fell 20% between January and April and took almost a year to recover. Asian markets had single digit falls that were short-lived and the United States market was relatively unaffected.

The yen rallied about 20% during the period with a repatriation of capital occurring.

However, the collapse of Barings Bank in late February of that year was also a factor, he said.

New Zealand
Trade between Japan and New Zealand had fallen significantly in the past 10 years with a close to 40% drop in exports in the period. Japan is New Zealand's fourth largest export destination, taking 7.5% of the country's exports.

Ignoring aluminium, the majority of those exports are agricultural related.

"We would expect global demand for these products to remain robust outside of Japan and do not see any significant impact as likely on the sector. Timber and log prices have been a key driver of Port of Tauranga's strong performances of late."

While Japan was a purchaser of timber, prices had been at record levels because of strong demand from China, Korea and India.

Tourism was another sector that might see some weakness, Mr Timms said.

In recent years, arrivals from Japan had been in decline, not helped by the economic downturn and swine flu outbreaks in recent years.

Visitor numbers had improved recently and Japan remained the country's fifth-largest visitor market.

"Approximately 2400 tourists from Japan were expected to arrive at the Rugby World Cup later this year and this estimate is likely to prove optimistic."

There had been weakness in stocks like Air New Zealand and Auckland Airport as a result, he said.

Australia
Japan was an important destination for Australia's good exports, taking 20% of total, but was a smaller consumer of service exports at 5%.

Australia shipped coal, iron ore, lng and beef to Japan while tourism dominated service exports, Mr Timms said.

"The disruption to Japanese industrial activity is likely to have a negative impact on the industrial metals and bulk commodity sectors. However, we expect attention will turn to reconstruction and copper and zinc could be the principal beneficiaries of a large-scale reconstruction programme.

"For mineral exports, we expect to see near-term disruption, as well as downward pressure on prices."

Japan imported about 85% of its energy use, he said.

The lost nuclear production capacity might have to be replaced by other fuel sources such as thermal coal and natural gas.

Resource companies were likely to be affected the most. Woodside and Santos seemed well placed to benefit from stronger lng demand while the flipside was a softer demand for uranium.

United States
The possible effects on the US economy from the earthquake appeared less damaging than the recent weakness in US markets would imply, Mr Timms said.

The tragedy in Japan was certain to limit global growth in the near-term as output from the world's third largest economy would be impaired. But the immediate impact to the US economy might turn out to be a mild boost to GDP growth due to the fact the US ran a $US60 billion trade deficit with Japan.

 

 

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