Greece's credit rating downgraded

Greece's financial future remains in the balance, with international rating agency Moody's further downgrading its credit rating just five notches short of a default rating.

As Greece goes cap in hand into further negotiations this week with the European Union and International Monetary Fund to draw down the fifth tranche of a total 110 billion euro rescue package, Moody's downgraded its rating from B1 to Caa1 and retained a negative outlook.

That means there is a 50% likelihood Greece will default, or have to restructure its debts, during the next five years, according to Moody's.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said, in the short term, the downgrade would make it more expensive for Greece to borrow money.

"The question is whether Greece is able to put in place further austerity measures. Further austerity measures won't have public support," Mr McIntyre said.

Demonstrations and riots have been widespread across Greece in recent weeks as unpopular cuts are made to jobs and Government spending on the already hard-hit economy.

Moody's justified the downgrade by saying Greece was "increasingly likely" to fail to stabilise its debt ratios under the timeframe set under earlier fiscal consolidation plans.

However, Mr McIntyre believed the IMF and EU would come through with the next cash tranche to avoid any default situation, as the ramifications of not doing so "would have a knock-on effect" felt in countries all around Europe.

Craigs research reported chairman of the euro-zone finance ministers Jean-Claude Juncker as saying the IMF might not approve the latest cash tranche unless Greece could convince the IMF it could remain solvent during the next 12 months.

Mr Juncker is pushing the idea of a "voluntary postponement" of repayments by Greece, in agreement with the lenders, which as a "debt reprofiling" measure would not qualify as an actual default by the major rating agencies.

The European Central Bank, which has been opposed to any kind of debt restructuring by Greece in the past, was reported by Reuters last week as saying the voluntary arrangement might be acceptable.

 

 

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