Consumer confidence suffers another hit

Satish Ranchhod.
Satish Ranchhod.
Consumer confidence remains in the doldrums and per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth has fallen to its slowest pace in eight years.

The latest Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence survey fell 0.3 points in June to 103.5, well below the average of 111.2 points.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said while 0.3 points was a relatively small drop, it followed earlier declines and left consumer confidence well below average levels.

''The continued slide in household confidence follows a more general cooling in the economy over the past year, and households are feeling it,'' Mr Ranchhod said.

In annual terms, per-capita GDP growth had now fallen to its slowest pace since 2011, having ''effectively stalled'' through the second half of last year, he said.

That weakness highlighted that much of the growth in economic activity in recent years was the result of strong migration and population growth.

''It also helps us to understand why individual households may be feeling so downbeat about the economic environment,'' he said.

The number of households who think now is a good time to purchase a major item has fallen to a two-year low.

''Households' confidence about the economic outlook has been trending down for around 18 months and is now weighing on spending appetites,'' Mr Ranchhod said.

Spending on household durable items, which had essentially been flat since late 2018.

''Households are also reporting that they have been scaling back their spending on entertainment activities and dining out,'' he said.

A net 4.7% of the 1556 people surveyed said they felt financially worse off now than they did a year ago, versus a net 8.3% which felt that way in the prior quarter, BusinessDesk reported.

A net 3.2% said they expected to be worse off in a year's time, versus a net 6.5% in the prior survey.

A net 4.6% anticipated a worse outlook for the wider economy over the coming year compared with a net 5.1% in the prior quarter.

A net 11.9% were optimistic about the five-year economic horizon versus 15.4% in the prior quarter.

The survey did signal some differences in confidence across age groups.

Those aged under 30 were much more upbeat about the economic outlook and confidence in this age group was at a five-year high.

Those aged over 50 were noticeably less confident than other groups and were particularly concerned about the economy's direction over the coming year.

McDermott Miller managing director Richard Miller said ''reassuringly but perhaps unsurprisingly, young consumers (18-29 years) seem to have been inspired by the political change of direction''.

Their optimism lifted strongly, by 12.6 points, to 129.1 on the consumer confidence index.

''In contrast, consumers over 50 years of age, who are some of the biggest spenders, lost confidence, down 3.9 points to 99.6 on the consumer confidence index.''

Mr Ranchhod said developments in the housing market were likely to be a big part of the reason for the divergence across age groups.

The past year has seen a marked slowdown in house sales and price growth.

There have also been a number of regulatory changes affecting the property market, as well as nervousness around the proposed capital gains tax.

Older New Zealanders, more likely to be homeowners or property investors, were more jittery.

For younger people are trying to get their foot on the property ladder, the slowdown and low interest rates meant home ownership appeared more affordable.

-Australian consumer confidence also dipped slightly over the weekend, an ANZ survey suggested, edging lower for the third consecutive week.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index fell 0.3% from the previous week. Respondents' perception of the country's current economic conditions was down 2.3% and the ''time to buy a household item'' metric slid 1.2%, AAP reported yesterday.

Additional reporting from BusinessDesk/AAP.

simon.hartley@odt.co.nz

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