A second consecutive monthly rise in commodity export prices could provide the first signs of an economic recovery.
The ANZ Commodity Price Index released yesterday revealed a 2.5% rise in the index for April, following a 1% rise in March. ANZ bank economist Steve Edwards while the rise was off a low base, it was still positive news for the economy.
"It is early days yet, but it [the recession] has got to stop somewhere, and this could be the turning point," he said in an interview.
It was the strongest monthly rise in nearly two years, but the index was still not far above its recent low.
The price of many commodities had now returned to levels last seen two or three years ago, he said.
"It looks like we have reached the trough. It depends on the type of recovery we get from here."
Eight commodities lifted in price during April, two were unchanged and three eased.
Aluminium recorded the largest rise, lifting 6.6%, lamb rose 6.4% to hit a high, while beef increased 3.2%, venison 1.6%, dairy 3.1% skins 2.3% and wool 1.3%.
New season apple prices in Europe were 4.2% lower than last year's closing price, while seafood eased 2.9% and logs fell 2%.
Mr Edwards said seafood aside, food exports were performing well and dairy product prices were starting to recover after tumbling off record levels.
Export lamb prices had reached record highs due to a global shortage and were double what they were in 2000.
An analysis by the bank revealed the growing importance of China as a sheepmeat market.
The United Kingdom still took 25% of our exports, but China was now one of our top eight markets with exports last year growing 59%.
A lower exchange rate compared to a year ago had provided a buffer for exports, but during April the New Zealand dollar rose against all our major trading partners.
On a trade-weighted basis the New Zealand dollar rose 5.5% for the month, but the increase was greater, 7.4%, against the United States dollar.
Mr Edwards said that figure outstripped the rise in world commodity prices, causing the ANZ New Zealand dollar commodity price index to ease 2.8% in April.
