Today
Chiefs v Reds
Form: The Chiefs (9-5, fourth) have been good without being great and come into the playoffs after two straight losses. They made the final last year, and won back-to-back championships in 2012-13. The Reds (8-6, fifth) have won four of their past five games, though those wins were over fellow Australian teams and the lowly Crusaders. Their only title came in 2011 and the years since have been pretty lean.
Stat chat: The Chiefs (88.9%) have the best lineout in Super Rugby, and Damian McKenzie leads the scoring charts with 144 points. The Reds (88.1%) are the joint-best tacklers in the competition with the Blues, and no player has more lineout takes than Reds captain Liam Wright’s 64.
Prediction: This should be the closest of the four quarterfinals. If the Chiefs get hot, they can be unstoppable. But these are Reds with a fair bit of steel in the backbone and a couple of gamebreakers. Chiefs 36, Reds 30.
Tomorrow
Hurricanes v Rebels
Form: The Hurricanes (12-2, first) have mostly been magnificent in 2024 and deservedly top the table. They have been rather disappointing in recent times, beaten by the Brumbies at the quarterfinal stage in each of the past two seasons, and their only title came in 2016. The Rebels (5-9, eighth) are a dead team walking — they are being shut down by Rugby Australia as they are broke — but they kept the Crusaders out of the playoffs, so we are on their side. They have always been reasonably dreadful, and this is their first appearance in the playoffs.
Stat chat: The Hurricanes are first in clean breaks and second in tries and defenders beaten, and Josh Moorby has the most clean breaks (18). The Rebels have conceded the second-fewest yellow cards, and lock Josh Canham has the second-most lineout grabs.
Prediction: One-way traffic, and that will be the end of Super Rugby in Melbourne. Hurricanes 48, Rebels 17.
Blues v Fijian Drua
Form: The Blues (12-2, second) are the best team in the competition but blew top qualifying spot with a loss to the Crusaders in the penultimate round followed by the relinquishing of a bonus point last week. They are still stinging after falling to pieces in the 2022 final and missing the opportunity to add to titles they won in 1996, 1997 and 2003. The Drua (6-8, seventh) have, as usual, been awesome at home and poor on the road. They have reached the quarterfinals twice in their three seasons in Super Rugby.
Stat chat: The Blues lead all teams in tries, carries and metres gained, and Mark Tele’a (first in carries), Hoskins Sotutu (second in tries) and Eroni Clarke (second in clean breaks) have all shone. The Drua lead Super Rugby in defenders beaten but are the worst tacklers, while Iosefo Masi (78) and Selestino Ravutaumada (65) are the top two in defenders beaten.
Prediction: This could get very ugly. Blues 55, Drua 12.
Brumbies v Highlanders
Form: The Brumbies (12-2, third) ride a six-game winning streak into the playoffs. They were beaten in the semifinals in the past two years, and won Super 12 titles in 2000, 2001 and 2004. The Highlanders (6-8, sixth) have had a mixed season but have won four of their past six games. Their sole title was in 2015.
Stat chat: The Brumbies rank second-last in carries, defenders beaten and tackling, but Tom Wright leads the entire competition in metres gained (1073). The Highlanders are second-last in tries, clean breaks and offloads, but Timoci Tavatavanawai (fourth in defenders beaten), Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens (third in metres gained) and Billy Harmon (second in tackles) have been good value.
Prediction: Head certainly says the Brumbies. They are in great nick, and so tough to beat at home.
Highlanders certainly have a chance but they might need to be perfect. Brumbies 32, Highlanders 24.
